Discussion:
Is there a plan?
(too old to reply)
Day Brown
2008-02-03 06:25:14 UTC
Permalink
I see Kunstler came out with another apocalyptic book. seems like one
comes out every month now. Its easy to make the case that TSHTF, but
what to do about that seems to be limited to ammo, guns, food, and
gas.

But whether all that will do you any good depends on where you are to
start with, where you go, and who will be there ahead of you. There's
a lotta infantry vets in the Ozarks who know how to setup an ambush.

It wont be like a movie or video game; you dont get to drive and shoot
at the same time, and those shooting back are not as stupid.

I aint so sure stocking a bunker is such a good idea either. those
I've seen posting seem like they'd go postal after a few weeks.

So- has anyone written a more thot out response to societal collapse?
Frank Gilliland
2008-02-03 06:46:05 UTC
Permalink
On Sat, 2 Feb 2008 22:25:14 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
I see Kunstler came out with another apocalyptic book. seems like one
comes out every month now. Its easy to make the case that TSHTF, but
what to do about that seems to be limited to ammo, guns, food, and
gas.
But whether all that will do you any good depends on where you are to
start with, where you go, and who will be there ahead of you. There's
a lotta infantry vets in the Ozarks who know how to setup an ambush.
It wont be like a movie or video game; you dont get to drive and shoot
at the same time, and those shooting back are not as stupid.
I aint so sure stocking a bunker is such a good idea either. those
I've seen posting seem like they'd go postal after a few weeks.
So- has anyone written a more thot out response to societal collapse?
I've never written a treatise on the subject, but my plans are simple.

I stock enough to keep me going for a couple months in case of a
localized natural disaster. Anything longer and the rats will be a
problem so then it's time to leave.

If it looks like the fall of civilization, all my stocks fit into my
truck quickly. I have stocked enough fuel to get me and mine to our
destination (wherever that may be) and last about 6 months, even a bit
longer if the weather cooperates. That should be long enough to get
settled. After that it's back to nature; wood stoves, tallow candles,
all-natural fibers, and probably a healthier lifestyle than you can
buy in what we currently call civilization.
Day Brown
2008-02-03 07:41:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by Frank Gilliland
On Sat, 2 Feb 2008 22:25:14 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
I see Kunstler came out with another apocalyptic book. seems like one
comes out every month now. Its easy to make the case that TSHTF, but
what to do about that seems to be limited to ammo, guns, food, and
gas.
But whether all that will do you any good depends on where you are to
start with, where you go, and who will be there ahead of you. There's
a lotta infantry vets in the Ozarks who know how to setup an ambush.
It wont be like a movie or video game; you dont get to drive and shoot
at the same time, and those shooting back are not as stupid.
I aint so sure stocking a bunker is such a good idea either. those
I've seen posting seem like they'd go postal after a few weeks.
So- has anyone written a more thot out response to societal collapse?
I've never written a treatise on the subject, but my plans are simple.
I stock enough to keep me going for a couple months in case of a
localized natural disaster. Anything longer and the rats will be a
problem so then it's time to leave.
If it looks like the fall of civilization, all my stocks fit into my
truck quickly. I have stocked enough fuel to get me and mine to our
destination (wherever that may be) and last about 6 months, even a bit
longer if the weather cooperates. That should be long enough to get
settled. After that it's back to nature; wood stoves, tallow candles,
all-natural fibers, and probably a healthier lifestyle than you can
buy in what we currently call civilization.
Thanx for a reasonable response. But its curious that nobody has yet
written an extensive treatise on it yet. Maybe its just too ambiguous
to deal with given all the variation in starting points that people
have. I've lived in the Boston mtns for 30 years, and noticed all the
flatlanders moving in in the past few. I spoze there are other rural
areas that are attracting investment, and a list of them mite be
useful.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Coffin/jan282008.html seems to say that the
next few months will be critical, revealing whether they can keep it
together or not. All the plans of the financial community look a lot
like smoke and mirrors, with nobody really knowing what they, or
anyone else, really has. While the value of nice lithographs of dead
presidents is obviously doubtful, I wonder what gold and silver would
be worth in an area where nobody who has food & fuel is willing to
trade any of it for pretty metal.

And while the plan for stocking up is appealing, if you later on dont
have the means to *produce* more, you just mite as well have starved
earlier. A problem the flatlanders moving in dont seem to realize is
that just cause you have land, dont mean it is fertile enuf to be very
useful.
Frank Gilliland
2008-02-03 10:29:23 UTC
Permalink
On Sat, 2 Feb 2008 23:41:04 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
Post by Frank Gilliland
On Sat, 2 Feb 2008 22:25:14 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
I see Kunstler came out with another apocalyptic book. seems like one
comes out every month now. Its easy to make the case that TSHTF, but
what to do about that seems to be limited to ammo, guns, food, and
gas.
But whether all that will do you any good depends on where you are to
start with, where you go, and who will be there ahead of you. There's
a lotta infantry vets in the Ozarks who know how to setup an ambush.
It wont be like a movie or video game; you dont get to drive and shoot
at the same time, and those shooting back are not as stupid.
I aint so sure stocking a bunker is such a good idea either. those
I've seen posting seem like they'd go postal after a few weeks.
So- has anyone written a more thot out response to societal collapse?
I've never written a treatise on the subject, but my plans are simple.
I stock enough to keep me going for a couple months in case of a
localized natural disaster. Anything longer and the rats will be a
problem so then it's time to leave.
If it looks like the fall of civilization, all my stocks fit into my
truck quickly. I have stocked enough fuel to get me and mine to our
destination (wherever that may be) and last about 6 months, even a bit
longer if the weather cooperates. That should be long enough to get
settled. After that it's back to nature; wood stoves, tallow candles,
all-natural fibers, and probably a healthier lifestyle than you can
buy in what we currently call civilization.
Thanx for a reasonable response. But its curious that nobody has yet
written an extensive treatise on it yet. Maybe its just too ambiguous
to deal with given all the variation in starting points that people
have.
Not to mention all the possible scenarios.
Post by Day Brown
I've lived in the Boston mtns for 30 years, and noticed all the
flatlanders moving in in the past few. I spoze there are other rural
areas that are attracting investment, and a list of them mite be
useful.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Coffin/jan282008.html seems to say that the
next few months will be critical, revealing whether they can keep it
together or not. All the plans of the financial community look a lot
like smoke and mirrors, with nobody really knowing what they, or
anyone else, really has. While the value of nice lithographs of dead
presidents is obviously doubtful, I wonder what gold and silver would
be worth in an area where nobody who has food & fuel is willing to
trade any of it for pretty metal.
That will always be a matter of debate. But the fact remains that
there will always be people like me who don't give it much value
because it isn't useful for much of anything. So in that respect it's
not the "universal currency" that some hope it will be.
Post by Day Brown
And while the plan for stocking up is appealing, if you later on dont
have the means to *produce* more, you just mite as well have starved
earlier. A problem the flatlanders moving in dont seem to realize is
that just cause you have land, dont mean it is fertile enuf to be very
useful.
My view is that stockpiles are only temporary -- obviously. They can
either help you hold out until sanity returns, or buy you time during
a radical transition or translocation.

The real wealth (as I see it) is in tools and other long-term durable
goods, the skill to use them, and the knowledge to start again from
scratch. I have a carefully selected crate of tools, some of which
have already lasted more than one lifetime, and none of which require
gas or electricity. I also have a second crate that contains a library
of more reference material than I could ever expect to use. My hope is
that, with just these two crates, a small group of people could build
an entire civilization, even if I'm not around to see it. At the very
least it will give them a fighting chance.

And that, to me, is what it's all about.
nick hull
2008-02-03 13:57:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by Frank Gilliland
My hope is
that, with just these two crates, a small group of people could build
an entire civilization, even if I'm not around to see it. At the very
least it will give them a fighting chance.
And that, to me, is what it's all about.
About all it took for the Founders to build America was the Bill of
Rights and the guts to enforce it. Rebuilding civilization will be more
about limiting politics BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY than starting a fire with
flint.

Free men own guns - www(dot)geocities(dot)com/CapitolHill/5357/
Frank Gilliland
2008-02-03 22:35:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by nick hull
Post by Frank Gilliland
My hope is
that, with just these two crates, a small group of people could build
an entire civilization, even if I'm not around to see it. At the very
least it will give them a fighting chance.
And that, to me, is what it's all about.
About all it took for the Founders to build America was the Bill of
Rights and the guts to enforce it. Rebuilding civilization will be more
about limiting politics BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY than starting a fire with
flint.
Probably because they already had a civilization to start with. All
they did was change how it was run. But you're right, it's absolutely
necessary to prevent concentration of power.
Too_Many_Tools
2008-03-10 00:23:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by nick hull
Post by Frank Gilliland
My hope is
that, with just these two crates, a small group of people could build
an entire civilization, even if I'm not around to see it. At the very
least it will give them a fighting chance.
And that, to me, is what it's all about.
About all it took for the Founders to build America was the Bill of
Rights and the guts to enforce it.  Rebuilding civilization will be more
about limiting politics BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY than starting a fire with
flint.
Free men own guns - www(dot)geocities(dot)com/CapitolHill/5357/
And it took their decendants a couple of hundred years to get it done.

TMT
Too_Many_Tools
2008-03-10 00:22:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by Frank Gilliland
On Sat, 2 Feb 2008 23:41:04 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
Post by Frank Gilliland
On Sat, 2 Feb 2008 22:25:14 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
I see Kunstler came out with another apocalyptic book. seems like one
comes out every month now. Its easy to make the case that TSHTF, but
what to do about that seems to be limited to ammo, guns, food, and
gas.
But whether all that will do you any good depends on where you are to
start with, where you go, and who will be there ahead of you. There's
a lotta infantry vets in the Ozarks who know how to setup an ambush.
It wont be like a movie or video game; you dont get to drive and shoot
at the same time, and those shooting back are not as stupid.
I aint so sure stocking a bunker is such a good idea either. those
I've seen posting seem like they'd go postal after a few weeks.
So- has anyone written a more thot out response to societal collapse?
I've never written a treatise on the subject, but my plans are simple.
I stock enough to keep me going for a couple months in case of a
localized natural disaster. Anything longer and the rats will be a
problem so then it's time to leave.
If it looks like the fall of civilization, all my stocks fit into my
truck quickly. I have stocked enough fuel to get me and mine to our
destination (wherever that may be) and last about 6 months, even a bit
longer if the weather cooperates. That should be long enough to get
settled. After that it's back to nature; wood stoves, tallow candles,
all-natural fibers, and probably a healthier lifestyle than you can
buy in what we currently call civilization.
Thanx for a reasonable response. But its curious that nobody has yet
written an extensive treatise on it yet. Maybe its just too ambiguous
to deal with given all the variation in starting points that people
have.
Not to mention all the possible scenarios.
Post by Day Brown
I've lived  in the Boston mtns for 30 years, and noticed all the
flatlanders moving in in the past few. I spoze there are other rural
areas that are attracting investment, and a list of them mite be
useful.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Coffin/jan282008.htmlseems to say that the
next few months will be critical, revealing whether they can keep it
together or not. All the plans of the financial community look a lot
like smoke and mirrors, with nobody really knowing what they, or
anyone else, really has. While the value of nice lithographs of dead
presidents is obviously doubtful, I wonder what gold and silver would
be worth in an area where nobody who has food & fuel is willing to
trade any of it for pretty metal.
That will always be a matter of debate. But the fact remains that
there will always be people like me who don't give it much value
because it isn't useful for much of anything. So in that respect it's
not the "universal currency" that some hope it will be.
Post by Day Brown
And while the plan for stocking up is appealing, if you later on dont
have the means to *produce* more, you just mite as well have starved
earlier. A problem the flatlanders moving in dont seem to realize is
that just cause you have land, dont mean it is fertile enuf to be very
useful.
My view is that stockpiles are only temporary -- obviously. They can
either help you hold out until sanity returns, or buy you time during
a radical transition or translocation.
The real wealth (as I see it) is in tools and other long-term durable
goods, the skill to use them, and the knowledge to start again from
scratch. I have a carefully selected crate of tools, some of which
have already lasted more than one lifetime, and none of which require
gas or electricity. I also have a second crate that contains a library
of more reference material than I could ever expect to use. My hope is
that, with just these two crates, a small group of people could build
an entire civilization, even if I'm not around to see it. At the very
least it will give them a fighting chance.
And that, to me, is what it's all about.- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
And how far can you carry these two crates when you need to move?

TMT
Too_Many_Tools
2008-03-10 00:21:06 UTC
Permalink
Post by Day Brown
Post by Frank Gilliland
On Sat, 2 Feb 2008 22:25:14 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
I see Kunstler came out with another apocalyptic book. seems like one
comes out every month now. Its easy to make the case that TSHTF, but
what to do about that seems to be limited to ammo, guns, food, and
gas.
But whether all that will do you any good depends on where you are to
start with, where you go, and who will be there ahead of you. There's
a lotta infantry vets in the Ozarks who know how to setup an ambush.
It wont be like a movie or video game; you dont get to drive and shoot
at the same time, and those shooting back are not as stupid.
I aint so sure stocking a bunker is such a good idea either. those
I've seen posting seem like they'd go postal after a few weeks.
So- has anyone written a more thot out response to societal collapse?
I've never written a treatise on the subject, but my plans are simple.
I stock enough to keep me going for a couple months in case of a
localized natural disaster. Anything longer and the rats will be a
problem so then it's time to leave.
If it looks like the fall of civilization, all my stocks fit into my
truck quickly. I have stocked enough fuel to get me and mine to our
destination (wherever that may be) and last about 6 months, even a bit
longer if the weather cooperates. That should be long enough to get
settled. After that it's back to nature; wood stoves, tallow candles,
all-natural fibers, and probably a healthier lifestyle than you can
buy in what we currently call civilization.
Thanx for a reasonable response. But its curious that nobody has yet
written an extensive treatise on it yet. Maybe its just too ambiguous
to deal with given all the variation in starting points that people
have. I've lived  in the Boston mtns for 30 years, and noticed all the
flatlanders moving in in the past few. I spoze there are other rural
areas that are attracting investment, and a list of them mite be
useful.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Coffin/jan282008.htmlseems to say that the
next few months will be critical, revealing whether they can keep it
together or not. All the plans of the financial community look a lot
like smoke and mirrors, with nobody really knowing what they, or
anyone else, really has. While the value of nice lithographs of dead
presidents is obviously doubtful, I wonder what gold and silver would
be worth in an area where nobody who has food & fuel is willing to
trade any of it for pretty metal.
And while the plan for stocking up is appealing, if you later on dont
have the means to *produce* more, you just mite as well have starved
earlier. A problem the flatlanders moving in dont seem to realize is
that just cause you have land, dont mean it is fertile enuf to be very
useful.- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
You have all the gold and silver you can eat.

Food and shelter trumps them every time.

TMT
h***@nospam.org
2008-02-03 17:26:01 UTC
Permalink
On Sat, 02 Feb 2008 22:46:05 -0800, Frank Gilliland
Post by Frank Gilliland
If it looks like the fall of civilization, all my stocks fit into my
truck quickly. I have stocked enough fuel to get me and mine to our
destination (wherever that may be) and last about 6 months, even a bit
longer if the weather cooperates. That should be long enough to get
settled. After that it's back to nature; wood stoves, tallow candles,
all-natural fibers, and probably a healthier lifestyle than you can
buy in what we currently call civilization.
you plan is to put everything you have into your truck and go to
wherever? That's your plan? Good luck bro. Save a bullet for
yourself.


Hal
Frank Gilliland
2008-02-03 22:37:59 UTC
Permalink
Post by h***@nospam.org
On Sat, 02 Feb 2008 22:46:05 -0800, Frank Gilliland
Post by Frank Gilliland
If it looks like the fall of civilization, all my stocks fit into my
truck quickly. I have stocked enough fuel to get me and mine to our
destination (wherever that may be) and last about 6 months, even a bit
longer if the weather cooperates. That should be long enough to get
settled. After that it's back to nature; wood stoves, tallow candles,
all-natural fibers, and probably a healthier lifestyle than you can
buy in what we currently call civilization.
you plan is to put everything you have into your truck and go to
wherever? That's your plan? Good luck bro. Save a bullet for
yourself.
Well, since the options are to either stay or go, and since I have the
option to do either and/or both, I think I'll save my bullets for more
productive purposes.
Winston_Smith
2008-02-03 16:31:46 UTC
Permalink
On Sat, 2 Feb 2008 22:25:14 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
I see Kunstler came out with another apocalyptic book. seems like one
comes out every month now. Its easy to make the case that TSHTF, but
what to do about that seems to be limited to ammo, guns, food, and
gas.
But whether all that will do you any good depends on where you are to
start with, where you go, and who will be there ahead of you. There's
a lotta infantry vets in the Ozarks who know how to setup an ambush.
It wont be like a movie or video game; you dont get to drive and shoot
at the same time, and those shooting back are not as stupid.
I aint so sure stocking a bunker is such a good idea either. those
I've seen posting seem like they'd go postal after a few weeks.
So- has anyone written a more thot out response to societal collapse?
I've started to put finger to keyboard several times. That's a
valuable exercise for anyone because it does wonders to organize their
thinking. Each time, I realize how very vast the subject is. The
several books I've bought that promise to address the subject fall
woefully short. That's doubly true if you don't first specify the
nature of the threat. The books take one view and only address that.
And mostly very incompletely at that.

There are many FAQs that have come out of this group. If you
systematically read all of them, you will at least get pointed in the
right direction even though a lot of them are old enough to be out of
date on specifics.

My web site host is up and down a lot lately, so I'll point you to an
archive that mirrors a lot of my site.

<http://web.archive.org/web/20060821211454/www.1stconnect.com/anozira/SiteTops/resources/faqs.htm>



Most of us are prepared for the short term things - natural disaster,
chemical spill evacuation, civil unrest, etc. A great many are
prepared for bugout from an impossible situation but a lot of those
don't have anything setup when they get to the other end. Darn few
are set to live virtually self-sufficient on a forever scale.

I've prepared for a lot of that - but "a lot" is woefully short.
That's why I've been on a tear to mine Goggle books and a bunch of
other sights. Besides the knowledge I've acquired - and practiced -
I'm getting a pretty good library built up. And yes, I'm prepared to
support a computer for at least years. By then I will know all the
necessary skills or be dead. I will have the loom set up or be naked
and frozen. I will have a practical garden and storage process
running or stave.

The ultimate is to pack it in and move to a fairly remote
homestead/retreat full time and do it now. That's always been my
retirement plan. I'm coming up to the end of my employment life fast.
Looking at events I've put the permanent bugout plans in high gear.

We are potentially on the verge of the perfect storm - polarized
politics, authoritarian government, economic collapse, huge medical
and financial effects of the retiring baby boomers, exhaustion of
natural resources, international conflict, and pandemic. Other than
that, things are good.

I'm not assuming anything will be there. Stores are out of business
or out of stock. If they have something it will be a million dollars
because of inflation. Employment opportunities are zero, medical care
unavailable, and your savings, in any form, worth zero. If you think
about it, isn't that pretty much the "naked in the wilderness"
scenario? People have migrated across the planet and that's what each
wave faced, isn't it? They took what they could and figured out how
to provide for themselves in the new place.

My dominant theme is to get away from population concentrations.
Services will fail, demands of government will soar, the inmates will
not be in a happy mood. Get thee thine ass out of Dodge. And take
your mule with you.
--
Posted via a free Usenet account from http://www.teranews.com
b***@yahoo.com
2008-02-04 00:46:49 UTC
Permalink
On Sat, 2 Feb 2008 22:25:14 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
I see Kunstler came out with another apocalyptic book. seems like one
comes out every month now. Its easy to make the case that TSHTF, but
what to do about that seems to be limited to ammo, guns, food, and
gas.
But whether all that will do you any good depends on where you are to
start with, where you go, and who will be there ahead of you. There's
a lotta infantry vets in the Ozarks who know how to setup an ambush.
It wont be like a movie or video game; you dont get to drive and shoot
at the same time, and those shooting back are not as stupid.
I aint so sure stocking a bunker is such a good idea either. those
I've seen posting seem like they'd go postal after a few weeks.
So- has anyone written a more thot out response to societal collapse?
My response is based on playing the game Civilization IV. To begin
with, you decide what degree of leader you are, either pretty solitary
or tribal or civilization builder. While setting up a permanent camp,
you will choose where based on resources available. To begin with,
you must defend against barbarian raiders and also pillage from
barbarians. If you run across any harmless villages, you can plunder
from them, but not molest them. Eventually, you get to form alliances
among more permanent camps you set up, trade with other civilizations,
or are at war with them for various reasons. A lot of it depends on
your preparations and strategies, getting info and tracking movements
of enemies.

In the Civilization game, you're not going to starve, but population
growth will be a problem, because you have to watch out for rebellion
and strikes by employees. A major question is going to be if you are
democratic or monarchal.

Okay, if you don't play games, just find a location on the water for a
castle-keep, which is a medieval watchtower with fireplace in the
center of the first floor, a circular staircase going up three floors,
and a flat roof for observation all around. Allow about ten people to
join you and delegate divisions of labor. bookburn
Day Brown
2008-02-05 07:58:52 UTC
Permalink
The long history of empire decline has many variations. One,
exemplified by the Byzantine, sheds unprofitable provinces to conquest
or anarchy and redirects more resources to the great power center. We
have the word "byzantine" because of the corruption, but everyone else
was also, so they lasted hundreds of years. But among the variation,
one of the things the Byzantine emperor did, was to grant land for
family farms to a class of mercenaries West of Constantinople, with
the proviso that their sons would serve in the legions to man that
part of the Danube border.
Everyone else was serfs and slaves. Which is the diff today with what
we know as the Serbs.

But more commonly, the power elite, which got rich by being able to do
it on the cheap, try to do that with the military as well, and when
some local crisis emerges, fails to allocate suffiecient forces and
supplies to deal with it. The chaos spreads, and the whole think
implodes like a house of credit cards. However- YMMV. Note that when
the USSR went down, it only took a week.

The southern red states, which had received the bulk of contracts for
the military industrial complex, had the most oil, what we'd call
agribusiness, and ethnic diversity- saw famine, demagogues arise to
blame minorities, had civil war, and even genocide. But the NW Coast
Blue Baltic states, which had myriads of small farms scattered among
the lakes and forests, quickly adapted. the local farmers didnt need
the permission of bankers and bureacrats to change the way they did
things, and rapidly ramped up production for the local markets. The
only violence was involved in kicking out the apparachniks. The lights
in Tallin, Vilna, and Riga didnt even blink.

Jared Diamond, in his latest, "Collapse", at the end of the book
outlines the traits of those areas which recover quickly. A few points
come to mind, in no particular order:
1- a homogeneous population will pull together to search for solutions
rather than scapegoat minorities.

2- The population density is low, with the forest and farm land close
at hand to feed people, heat with firewood, and provide building
materials.

3- Small farms can be worked with draft animals or even hand tools for
veggies. They dont need extensive infrastructure support. Because the
people feel they have in investment to protect, they fight efficiently
to keep it. Its worth remembering that one Axis power had small farms
and farmers like this: Finland, and defeated the Soviets when the
Nazis could not. Partly this was also due to what Von Clausewitz said
a general should do when confronted with steep forested land:"go
around it." Any of the gun nuts in their cammy jammies who frequent
lists like this thinking that they can live off others should bear
that in mind.

4- In small rural communities, everyone knows what everone drives. It
aint like a suburb where you can drive by to case the neighborhood. It
has a lot to do with hominid evolution. Native Europeans evolved in
villages of 150-300 over the course of the last 10,000 years.
Instinctively, they know how to get along with each other, and dont
need status symbols to know how to relate. The girls all know that a
jackass with a new 4X4 is still a jackass. Moreover, many of them can
shoot. A raider will hesitate, not wanting to kill something he wants
to fuck later. The girls in rural communities dont have the problem,
and wont wait.

5- You can dramtically increase your odds of survival by knowing how
to garden. Tools and seeds would make that believeable. Having the
social skills to know who you can work with helps, and if you ever
expect to get laid again, better have the report on your STD status.
In a small community, it dont take long before everyone knows who has
herpes or whatever.

But if you do havta make it on your own, forget the national forest.
Do it like the early Slavs did. The wars between the Romans and
barbarians created a no-man's land 100-200km wide along the Rhine and
Danube. The area was entirely depopulated. but after a few years, like
after a clearcut, abandoned farmland grew up with brush again, 2-5
meters high. Unlike climax forest, where you can see between the tree
trunks for 50 meters or more, in brush like this, its more like 5
meters.

A Slav couple would dig out a small cabin, to earth berm the walls of
a 2x3 or 3x4 meter cabin with such a low profile it was invisible.
They'd build a clay or rock oven in a corner, which only had a fire at
night when the smoke would not be seen. The thermal mass kept the
hovel warm during the day.

A mere 1/20th of an acre in turnips will get a man thru the winter
with enough energy to work up more ground in spring for a balanced
long term diet. If you know what you are doing, have the hand tools
and seeds, 1/4 acre/person will do iindefinately with decent ground
and rainfall. The Slavs didnt have guns, but did have rabbit snares.
which dont make any noise. In brush like this, a trap line will
produce a rabbit every day or so.

I dunno where you are going to find a Slav wife who knows how to live
this way.
Too_Many_Tools
2008-03-10 00:25:34 UTC
Permalink
Post by Frank Gilliland
On Sat, 2 Feb 2008 22:25:14 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
I see Kunstler came out with another apocalyptic book. seems like one
comes out every month now. Its easy to make the case that TSHTF, but
what to do about that seems to be limited to ammo, guns, food, and
gas.
But whether all that will do you any good depends on where you are to
start with, where you go, and who will be there ahead of you. There's
a lotta infantry vets in the Ozarks who know how to setup an ambush.
It wont be like a movie or video game; you dont get to drive and shoot
at the same time, and those shooting back are not as stupid.
I aint so sure stocking a bunker is such a good idea either. those
I've seen posting seem like they'd go postal after a few weeks.
So- has anyone written a more thot out response to societal collapse?
My response is based on playing the game Civilization IV.  To begin
with, you decide what degree of leader you are, either pretty solitary
or tribal or civilization builder.  While setting up a permanent camp,
you will choose where based on resources available.   To begin with,
you must defend against barbarian raiders and also pillage from
barbarians.  If you run across any harmless villages, you can plunder
from them, but not molest them.  Eventually, you get to form alliances
among more permanent camps you set up, trade with other civilizations,
or are at war with them for various reasons.  A lot of it depends on
your preparations and strategies, getting info and tracking movements
of enemies.  
In the Civilization game, you're not going to starve, but population
growth will be a problem, because you have to watch out for rebellion
and strikes by employees.  A major question is going to be if you are
democratic or monarchal.
Okay, if you don't play games, just find a location on the water for a
castle-keep, which is a medieval watchtower with fireplace in the
center of the first floor, a circular staircase going up three floors,
and a flat roof for observation all around.  Allow about ten people to
join you and delegate divisions of labor.  bookburn- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
In a game you get to watch others to starve, in real life you get to
live it real time.

TMT
Day Brown
2008-03-10 01:08:56 UTC
Permalink
The series of one liners is indicative of the attention span, which is
so common a phenomena any rational person has to be worried.

That some of those I meet in the hills are rational enuf to be taking
practical steps to survive economic crisis does not add up to an
extensive survey to find out whether that is enuf of the population to
stay organized or not. While the school report from these hill towns
is encouraging, I rather doubt that even these kids, who test out so
well, could handle http://daybrown.org/farmath/farmath.html, which is
a scan of an 1885 one room country school 8th grade math book.

You can tell from the questions that the boys were expected to be able
to calculate the angle of a rafter, the production of a field, or the
fodder needed to supply the draft animals to properly work it. Girls
were expected to be able to figure the amount of yarn needed for
knitting, and the quantity of well water needed to chill the milking.
Both without digital calculators.

The data is ambiguous; Gibbon commented on how so many Roman emperors
raised in Rome (eg Caligua, Nero, Commodus) were disasters, while
those that rose from the ranks of the legions, who had been farmboys
out in the boonies, (Trajan, Vespasian) were more often competent.
Robert Kaplan, in his study of the military, "Imperial Grunts",
reports that half the Green Berets grew up on family farms. The Ozarks
is one of the few rural regions still family farms rather than
agribusiness. And after the soldiers finish up, they come back home.

The percapita ratio of former military men who know how to take
advantage of terrain and use weapons effectively would seem to be
rather high. I dont know many people, but three are retired veterans
of Gulf War I. OTOH, I see plenty of old fart lardbutts at Wall Mart.
I'd expect a fairly rapid die off when blood pressure meds and insulin
for diabetes runs out. The same as the city; but here, it'd mean
abandoned farms. You would not have to buy land; you'd just have to
be here when it happens.

If the economic crisis comes on over the space of a month or whatever,
we'd expect lotsa guys who lost everything in the city to go postal.
If they flip out in the woods, they tend to go after who ever is
around, and often that means suicide. But another thing about the
woods is hominid instinct. Lotsa guys feel they are at home in it, and
based on that sense, begin to come out of psychosis. The ancient sages
were always telling people to get the fuck out of dodge if they wanted
to get their heads screwed on straight.

garlicman
2008-02-05 17:43:43 UTC
Permalink
Post by Day Brown
I see Kunstler came out with another apocalyptic book. seems like one
comes out every month now. Its easy to make the case that TSHTF, but
what to do about that seems to be limited to ammo, guns, food, and
gas.
But whether all that will do you any good depends on where you are to
start with, where you go, and who will be there ahead of you. There's
a lotta infantry vets in the Ozarks who know how to setup an ambush.
It wont be like a movie or video game; you dont get to drive and shoot
at the same time, and those shooting back are not as stupid.
I aint so sure stocking a bunker is such a good idea either. those
I've seen posting seem like they'd go postal after a few weeks.
So- has anyone written a more thot out response to societal collapse?
I know of none who have written about this. So many possibilities...

Your best bet for long-term survival after TSHTF is to group together with
others of like mind. The so-called warriors will all kill each other, city
dwellers who cannot evacuate will nearly all die, and all the people in poor
health who can't walk a few miles or go a day or two without food will die.
These three groups will account for many millions dead in the U.S.

You'll want to find a group who does not resort to violence except to
protect their property and rights, who can live by a moral code (opposed to
a judicial code), and have a wide variety of skills and experiences.
strabo
2008-02-08 23:41:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by garlicman
Post by Day Brown
I see Kunstler came out with another apocalyptic book. seems like one
comes out every month now. Its easy to make the case that TSHTF, but
what to do about that seems to be limited to ammo, guns, food, and
gas.
But whether all that will do you any good depends on where you are to
start with, where you go, and who will be there ahead of you. There's
a lotta infantry vets in the Ozarks who know how to setup an ambush.
It wont be like a movie or video game; you dont get to drive and shoot
at the same time, and those shooting back are not as stupid.
I aint so sure stocking a bunker is such a good idea either. those
I've seen posting seem like they'd go postal after a few weeks.
So- has anyone written a more thot out response to societal collapse?
I know of none who have written about this. So many possibilities...
Your best bet for long-term survival after TSHTF is to group together with
others of like mind. The so-called warriors will all kill each other, city
dwellers who cannot evacuate will nearly all die, and all the people in poor
health who can't walk a few miles or go a day or two without food will die.
These three groups will account for many millions dead in the U.S.
You'll want to find a group who does not resort to violence except to
protect their property and rights, who can live by a moral code (opposed to
a judicial code), and have a wide variety of skills and experiences.
Looks like you might pass Anthropology 101.
Day Brown
2008-02-10 21:10:29 UTC
Permalink
I visited a young couple up in Searcy County AR yesterday. They talk
of a local group of young parents, all having moved away to reduce the
personal risk of collapse as well as to find a clean environment to
raise their own kids.

but my, my. They are too dispersed across several square miles of
Ozark woods for mutual defense. The 40 acres I saw yesterday is a
tertiary growth clearcut of some years back, with soil so bad I dunno
if they could even grow turnips. They are on the land, have been for a
couple years or more, but none of them are anywhere near self
sufficiency. They cant even provide their own food, much less their
own energy.

I am part of an older group. also scattered across several locations,
but such kids as some have, are now in high school. And about as
useful as the tits on a boar, at least not as needy as little ones.
But anyway, if TSHTF, we can evaluate the situation as it unfolds,
ready to move further back into the boonies if need be, or closer to
town to grow produce and fruit for the local market.

We have a wide variety of skills, but the two x-infantry dudes, who
know how to use weapons, are pretty badly out of shape. They can
shoot, but not run. Flip sides to every situation.
b***@yahoo.com
2008-02-11 01:59:44 UTC
Permalink
On Sun, 10 Feb 2008 13:10:29 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
I visited a young couple up in Searcy County AR yesterday. They talk
of a local group of young parents, all having moved away to reduce the
personal risk of collapse as well as to find a clean environment to
raise their own kids.
but my, my. They are too dispersed across several square miles of
Ozark woods for mutual defense. The 40 acres I saw yesterday is a
tertiary growth clearcut of some years back, with soil so bad I dunno
if they could even grow turnips. They are on the land, have been for a
couple years or more, but none of them are anywhere near self
sufficiency. They cant even provide their own food, much less their
own energy.
I am part of an older group. also scattered across several locations,
but such kids as some have, are now in high school. And about as
useful as the tits on a boar, at least not as needy as little ones.
But anyway, if TSHTF, we can evaluate the situation as it unfolds,
ready to move further back into the boonies if need be, or closer to
town to grow produce and fruit for the local market.
We have a wide variety of skills, but the two x-infantry dudes, who
know how to use weapons, are pretty badly out of shape. They can
shoot, but not run. Flip sides to every situation.
Saying you can wait until TSHTF to learn basics is like the
grasshopper and ant story. As you remember, the grasshopper used the
summer to hop around, and when winter came, his legs were too cold to
jump. Ant kept busy and had his home built.

One strategy to deal with preparation of young for survival is, guess
what?, education. I think that public education should have a 4-H
Club facet to it, along with military and other tech training, so that
kids have a Boys and Girls Scouts Club to belong to. They really need
that for socialization and practical reasons, especially in the
summer. Every community could emphasize different skills and
objectives to be working on, whether urban survival, rural farming,
fishing, etc.. It's out there now, we just need much more of it. bb
Day Brown
2008-02-11 19:01:27 UTC
Permalink
Post by b***@yahoo.com
Saying you can wait until TSHTF to learn basics is like the
grasshopper and ant story. As you remember, the grasshopper used the
summer to hop around, and when winter came, his legs were too cold to
jump. Ant kept busy and had his home built.
One strategy to deal with preparation of young for survival is, guess
what?, education. I think that public education should have a 4-H
Club facet to it, along with military and other tech training, so that
kids have a Boys and Girls Scouts Club to belong to. They really need
that for socialization and practical reasons, especially in the
summer. Every community could emphasize different skills and
objectives to be working on, whether urban survival, rural farming,
fishing, etc.. It's out there now, we just need much more of it. bb
Well, its not upta me Bookburn. And at 68, hardly matters. If Madd
Max's boys came to shoot me, I've had my run, and cant complain.
There's a lot I think hill folks could be doing, but even if they did,
there's only 100,000 or so in a nation of hundreds of millions of
urbanites who could show up, out numbering local bunker defenders by
100 to one or more.

Only well regulated militias would have any chance at all, but I dont
see any move to create them either. Greeks showed what unit cohesion
could do against the Persians. When Xenophon and the Ten Thousand left
Artaxerxes and his million man army, they were out numbered by 100 to
one, but lived to make history.

But the cammy jammy bunker boys stand no chance at all against an
organized SWAT team that keeps up the seige for 3-4 days til he falls
asleep. But militias have always been able to maintain 24/7
surveillance.
Sum Ting Wong
2008-02-11 20:28:20 UTC
Permalink
On Mon, 11 Feb 2008 11:01:27 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
Well, its not upta me Bookburn. And at 68, hardly matters. If Madd
Max's boys came to shoot me, I've had my run, and cant complain.
I'll bet that a lot of folks out here aren't familiar with the old
grasshopper and ant story, so it's time to bring everyone up to date:


Original Chinese Version:

The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building
his house and laying up supplies for the winter. The grasshopper
thinks he's a fool, laughs, and dances and plays the summer away.
Come winter, the ant is warm and well fed. The grasshopper has no food
or shelter so he dies out in the cold.

Modern American Version:

The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building
his house and laying up supplies for the winter. The grasshopper
thinks he's a fool, laughs, and dances and plays the summer away.
Come winter, the shivering grasshopper calls a press conference and
demands to know why the ant should be allowed to be warm and well fed
while others are cold and starving.

CBS, NBC and ABC show up to provide pictures of the shivering
grasshopper next to a video of the ant in his comfortable home with a
table filled with food. America is stunned by the sharp contrast. How
can it be that, in a country of such wealth, this poor grasshopper is
allowed to suffer so?

Then a representative of the NAGB (The National Association of Green
Bugs) shows up on MSNBC and charges the ant with green bias and makes
the case that the grasshopper is the victim of 30 million years of
greenism. Kermit the frog appears on Oprah with the grasshopper and
everybody cries when he sings "It's not easy being green". Bill and
Hillary Clinton make a special guest appearance on the CBS Evening
News to tell a concerned Katie Couric that they will do everything
they can for the grasshopper who has been denied the
prosperity he deserves by those who benefited unfairly during the Bush
summers. John Edwards exclaims in an interview with Keith Olbermann
that the ant has gotten rich off the back of the grasshopper and calls
for an immediate tax hike on the ant to make him pay his "fair share".

Finally, the EEOC drafts the "Economic Equity and Anti-Greenism Act",
retroactive to the beginning of the summer. The ant is fined for
failing to hire a proportionate number of green bugs. Having nothing
left to pay his retroactive taxes, the ant's home is confiscated by
the government. Hillary gets her old law firm to represent the
grasshopper in a defamation suit against the ant and the case is tried
before a panel of federal hearing officers appointed from a list of
single-parent welfare moms who can only hear cases on Thursdays
between 1:30 and 3:00pm.

The ant loses the case. The story ends as we see the grasshopper
finishing up the last bits of the ant's food while the government
house he is in, which just happens to be the ant's old house, crumbles
around him since he doesn't know how to maintain it. The ant has
disappeared in the snow. And on the TV, which the grasshopper bought
by selling most of the ant's food they are showing Hillary Clinton
standing before a wildly applauding group of democrats announcing that
a new era of "fairness" has dawned in America.

S.T.W. ; )
Terryc
2008-02-11 22:27:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by Sum Ting Wong
On Mon, 11 Feb 2008 11:01:27 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
Well, its not upta me Bookburn. And at 68, hardly matters. If Madd
Max's boys came to shoot me, I've had my run, and cant complain.
I'll bet that a lot of folks out here aren't familiar with the old
The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building
his house and laying up supplies for the winter. The grasshopper
thinks he's a fool, laughs, and dances and plays the summer away.
Come winter, the ant is warm and well fed. The grasshopper has no food
or shelter so he dies out in the cold.
Sorry, but americans can never understand morals, so why bother reading
another piece of white trash sob story that makes all americans sound
like the grasshopper.
Werner
2008-03-06 17:56:15 UTC
Permalink
On Feb 11, 3:28 pm, Sum Ting Wong <***@privacy.net> wrote:
...
...wildly applauding group of democrats announcing that
Post by Sum Ting Wong
a new era of "fairness" has dawned in America.
S.T.W.   ;  )
This is a great way to describe the situation. Hope you don't mind my
saving it possible future use. Thanks.

http://www.capitaldistrict-lp.org/how.shtml

Perhaps some day enough people will understand that governing has
become about money and privilege - taking it from some and giving it
to themselves.
http://www.capitaldistrict-lp.org/what.shtml
Terryc
2008-02-11 22:24:30 UTC
Permalink
Post by Day Brown
Well, its not upta me Bookburn. And at 68, hardly matters. If Madd
Max's boys came to shoot me, I've had my run, and cant complain.
There's a lot I think hill folks could be doing, but even if they did,
there's only 100,000 or so in a nation of hundreds of millions of
urbanites who could show up, out numbering local bunker defenders by
100 to one or more.
Lol, just because they can get there, doesn't mean they are going to be
significant or achieve anything.
Day Brown
2008-02-17 06:10:07 UTC
Permalink
Post by Terryc
Post by Day Brown
Well, its not upta me Bookburn. And at 68, hardly matters. If Madd
Max's boys came to shoot me, I've had my run, and cant complain.
There's a lot I think hill folks could be doing, but even if they did,
there's only 100,000 or so in a nation of hundreds of millions of
urbanites who could show up, out numbering local bunker defenders by
100 to one or more.
Lol, just because they can get there, doesn't mean they are going to be
significant or achieve anything.
How many guns can you shoot at once? They will figure out how many
shooters have to hit a bunker at the same time. In as much as they are
gonna starve anyway, they have nothing to loose. The Slav couples
survived, not by being able to shoot, but by being able to have such a
low carbon footprint nobody knew where they were. There were no
powerlines or roads leading to their cabins in the bush. They
backpacked *everything* in.
Terryc
2008-02-17 14:05:18 UTC
Permalink
Post by Day Brown
How many guns can you shoot at once?
That is the least important matter.
Post by Day Brown
They will figure out how many shooters have to hit a bunker at the same time.
You guys have been watching too many movies.
Plus, there is a very low natural limit to any crzed mob attacking force.
Post by Day Brown
In as much as they are gonna starve anyway, they have nothing to loose.
So one starving, tired untrained assailant is equal to one well fed,
rested, trained defender?

First defence isn't the bunker. First defence is sniping well away from
the bunker.
Post by Day Brown
The Slav couples survived, not by being able to shoot, but by being able to have such a
low carbon footprint nobody knew where they were. There were no
powerlines or roads leading to their cabins in the bush. They
backpacked *everything* in.
Nothing wrog with that. I agree with that as a good tactic. Amongst AC's
post were some good ideas for leaving no tracks.
Frank Gilliland
2008-02-17 14:43:34 UTC
Permalink
On Mon, 18 Feb 2008 01:05:18 +1100, Terryc
Post by Terryc
Post by Day Brown
How many guns can you shoot at once?
That is the least important matter.
Post by Day Brown
They will figure out how many shooters have to hit a bunker at the same time.
You guys have been watching too many movies.
Plus, there is a very low natural limit to any crzed mob attacking force.
A mob doesn't need to be crazed, just highly motivated.
Post by Terryc
Post by Day Brown
In as much as they are gonna starve anyway, they have nothing to loose.
So one starving, tired untrained assailant is equal to one well fed,
rested, trained defender?
First defence isn't the bunker. First defence is sniping well away from
the bunker.
Maybe if you have a scope that can see through smoke.....

The first defense is to keep the location an absolute secret. There is
no second defense because as soon as people know about the bunker you
don't stand a chance. That is, unless you have a secure escape route.
Terryc
2008-02-18 01:53:07 UTC
Permalink
Post by Frank Gilliland
A mob doesn't need to be crazed, just highly motivated.
As I said, too many movies. A mob is just individuals, which you deal
with, then the next, then the next, then the next. They do not have a
collective intelligence.
Post by Frank Gilliland
Maybe if you have a scope that can see through smoke.....
Illiterate too I see, or is that the movies creeping in again.
although, you might have a point, running a forest/bush fire across
their main body usually helps to reduce their effectiveness.
Post by Frank Gilliland
The first defense is to keep the location an absolute secret. There is
no second defense because as soon as people know about the bunker you
don't stand a chance.
You haven't taken too many city people out into the country have you?
Once the power outlets, running water and sanitation starts
disappearing, their effectiveness plummets fast.
Frank Gilliland
2008-02-18 07:27:16 UTC
Permalink
On Mon, 18 Feb 2008 12:53:07 +1100, Terryc
Post by Terryc
Post by Frank Gilliland
A mob doesn't need to be crazed, just highly motivated.
As I said, too many movies. A mob is just individuals, which you deal
with, then the next, then the next, then the next. They do not have a
collective intelligence.
If their collective objective is to take your bunker, it doesn't
matter what you call them -- they'll win in the end.
Post by Terryc
Post by Frank Gilliland
Maybe if you have a scope that can see through smoke.....
Illiterate too I see, or is that the movies creeping in again.
although, you might have a point, running a forest/bush fire across
their main body usually helps to reduce their effectiveness.
And your's..... that is, unless you have a fire-proof bunker with a
fully self-contained air supply.
Post by Terryc
Post by Frank Gilliland
The first defense is to keep the location an absolute secret. There is
no second defense because as soon as people know about the bunker you
don't stand a chance.
You haven't taken too many city people out into the country have you?
Plenty. OTOH, and by your own admission, you haven't had much military
training or experience. So try and take some advice from someone who
has -- never assume your fortifications are impermeable, and always
plan an escape route.
Post by Terryc
Once the power outlets, running water and sanitation starts
disappearing, their effectiveness plummets fast.
Whatever.

You can either consider my advice or dismiss it, I don't care. But if
you are going to do the latter then at least do it for the right
reasons.
Terryc
2008-02-19 00:40:14 UTC
Permalink
Post by Frank Gilliland
On Mon, 18 Feb 2008 12:53:07 +1100, Terryc
Post by Terryc
Post by Frank Gilliland
A mob doesn't need to be crazed, just highly motivated.
As I said, too many movies. A mob is just individuals, which you deal
with, then the next, then the next, then the next. They do not have a
collective intelligence.
If their collective objective is to take your bunker, it doesn't
matter what you call them -- they'll win in the end.
Can someone direct Frank to a more appropriate list.
He certainly isn't a survivalist.
Retief
2008-02-20 03:37:05 UTC
Permalink
On Sun, 17 Feb 2008 23:27:16 -0800, Frank Gilliland
Post by Frank Gilliland
Post by Terryc
Post by Frank Gilliland
A mob doesn't need to be crazed, just highly motivated.
As I said, too many movies. A mob is just individuals, which you deal
with, then the next, then the next, then the next. They do not have a
collective intelligence.
If their collective objective is to take your bunker, it doesn't
matter what you call them -- they'll win in the end.
So, who wants to die first?

How many of these useless eaters need to be shot, before they decide
that Fran should go in first?
Post by Frank Gilliland
Post by Terryc
Post by Frank Gilliland
Maybe if you have a scope that can see through smoke.....
Illiterate too I see, or is that the movies creeping in again.
although, you might have a point, running a forest/bush fire across
their main body usually helps to reduce their effectiveness.
And your's..... that is, unless you have a fire-proof bunker with a
fully self-contained air supply.
So these people want the contents of your "bunker" so badly that
they'll burn it all to the ground to acquire it (not counting the
number of dead raiders)? Say, now that's a brilliant strategy...

Retief
Day Brown
2008-02-20 10:48:11 UTC
Permalink
Crunch the numbers. 98% of the population lives in urban areas. When
they leave the city, they'll go for the easy targets first, the small
towns and farms along the way. Some of them will get killed, but out
numbering the farmers 50:1, all the farmers will. Even if the farmers
take out ten for every one, that leaves 40 moving on to the next
target.

And those *survivors* will be the smarter ones. The guy sitting in the
bunker dont get any practice. Those coming his way practice every step
of the way, and will prolly show up in swat teams of 20-50. A lot
would depend on what time of year, whether there is snow cover. Nobody
will be plowing the Interstates. Some smart guys will steal a train.
Whoever it is, by the time they get out to the really remote boonies,
all the dumbasses will already be dead; only the strong, smart, and
fit will show up.

Or be around months later. The only thing that makes any sense is a
well regulated rural militia. Only that will have the manpower to
monitor the perimeter and surveillance equipment on a 24/7 basis.
Only that will have CB radios in contact with nearby communities to be
informed of who, and in what numbers, is moving in which direction.

There are natural gas wells 20 miles from me, hidden in southern Ozark
valleys that will have militias guarding them. Those guys will have
propane barbi and home gas range bottles that'll hold 5-20 gallons of
compressed natural gas that they can use to fuel the engines of their
trucks. No refinery needed. All you need is an air compressor. Get it
up to 250psi, and it'll liquify. Commonly, we see 300 gallon home
heating propane tanks. put one of those in the back of a bigfoot
crewcab 4X4, use it to tow an RV trailer, and you got a mobile swat
team with a range of 1500 miles. and back.

Those boys will be in business. They wont hunk in the bunker, but
*organize* to take whatever they want from whoever they think has it.
And they'll get lotsa practice. They prolly wont hit your place for a
year or so, but they, or some similar outfit, will get around to it.
Such gangs have always emerged after the collapse of empire. And after
a few years of sporadic gang warfare, warlords will emerge who are
better at it, who'll be sending goon squads by to collect "protection
money", ie taxes.
Frank Gilliland
2008-02-20 13:40:13 UTC
Permalink
On Wed, 20 Feb 2008 02:48:11 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
Crunch the numbers. 98% of the population lives in urban areas. When
they leave the city, they'll go for the easy targets first, the small
towns and farms along the way. Some of them will get killed, but out
numbering the farmers 50:1, all the farmers will. Even if the farmers
take out ten for every one, that leaves 40 moving on to the next
target.
And those *survivors* will be the smarter ones. The guy sitting in the
bunker dont get any practice. Those coming his way practice every step
of the way, and will prolly show up in swat teams of 20-50. A lot
would depend on what time of year, whether there is snow cover. Nobody
will be plowing the Interstates. Some smart guys will steal a train.
Whoever it is, by the time they get out to the really remote boonies,
all the dumbasses will already be dead; only the strong, smart, and
fit will show up.
Or be around months later. The only thing that makes any sense is a
well regulated rural militia. Only that will have the manpower to
monitor the perimeter and surveillance equipment on a 24/7 basis.
Only that will have CB radios in contact with nearby communities to be
informed of who, and in what numbers, is moving in which direction.
There are natural gas wells 20 miles from me, hidden in southern Ozark
valleys that will have militias guarding them. Those guys will have
propane barbi and home gas range bottles that'll hold 5-20 gallons of
compressed natural gas that they can use to fuel the engines of their
trucks. No refinery needed. All you need is an air compressor. Get it
up to 250psi, and it'll liquify. Commonly, we see 300 gallon home
heating propane tanks. put one of those in the back of a bigfoot
crewcab 4X4, use it to tow an RV trailer, and you got a mobile swat
team with a range of 1500 miles. and back.
Those boys will be in business. They wont hunk in the bunker, but
*organize* to take whatever they want from whoever they think has it.
And they'll get lotsa practice. They prolly wont hit your place for a
year or so, but they, or some similar outfit, will get around to it.
Such gangs have always emerged after the collapse of empire. And after
a few years of sporadic gang warfare, warlords will emerge who are
better at it, who'll be sending goon squads by to collect "protection
money", ie taxes.
To collect money (but more likely goods and 'services') from those who
choose life instead of trying to defend their bunkers from the hungry
masses. Those who don't comply will be killed, even if it destroys any
stockpiles, because survival is a life-and-death competition -- it's
better to destroy everything than risk letting those supplies end up
in the hands of the competition, or allow the bunker-dwellers to live
and someday ally themselves with the competition, or become a future
threat all by themselves. In such a primal situation, the only choices
are to either share or die.

BTW, don't take anything Retief says too seriously. He (aka, Charles
Scripter) is a two-college dropout from about 15 years ago, and has
since been trying to prove his intellectual superiority as a Usenet
kook. Just recently he decided to appoint himself as my private troll
and contradicts me just to get my attention. But his learning curve is
too shallow to realize that I quit playing his game months ago (which
must be why he dropped out..... twice).
Retief
2008-02-24 18:33:03 UTC
Permalink
On Wed, 20 Feb 2008 05:40:13 -0800, Frank Gilliland
Post by Frank Gilliland
Post by Day Brown
Such gangs have always emerged after the collapse of empire. And after
a few years of sporadic gang warfare, warlords will emerge who are
better at it, who'll be sending goon squads by to collect "protection
money", ie taxes.
To collect money (but more likely goods and 'services') from those who
choose life instead of trying to defend their bunkers from the hungry
masses. Those who don't comply will be killed, even if it destroys any
Sure thing, MABU.
Post by Frank Gilliland
stockpiles, because survival is a life-and-death competition -- it's
better to destroy everything than risk letting those supplies end up
in the hands of the competition, or allow the bunker-dwellers to live
Boy, I sure do hope those looters and criminals can tell the
difference between the poisoned food stores and the ones that are safe
to eat... ;)
Post by Frank Gilliland
and someday ally themselves with the competition, or become a future
threat all by themselves. In such a primal situation, the only choices
are to either share or die.
Sure Francis, you and your Mabuvian Horde might kill a few farmers,
and after several "highly successful" pyrrhic victories, you will be
hung (if you're lucky, it will be that quick).
Post by Frank Gilliland
BTW, don't take anything Retief says too seriously.
BTW, don't believe anything that Francis says, as Francis is a
demonstrable liar, troll and agent provacatuer.

Francis' posts range from mediocre advice, to outright dangerous
"advice", to outright fear mongering (such as Francis' recent EMF
thread, where it claimed that high tension power lines were going to
produce high energy x-rays... "my god, you'd better throw away that
technology, as it might fail!!!" -- hmmm...sounds like our favorite
Luddite Alan Connor)

How interesting that Francis is once again "fear mongering", now
telling the reader to comply with the looters from the city or die.
Hell, next she will say something like "you shouldn't bother having
any food stored, because it will eventually run out" (this wouldn't be
unexpected from Francis, as it previously claimed that equipment would
eventually wear out, and therefore you shouldn't waste your time
acquiring such equipment).

MABU would be proud of Frannie (and like Francis, MABU was hung up on
DD214's)... But what should we expect from an individual who is so
incompetant that even the Marines wouldn't tolerate her.
Post by Frank Gilliland
and contradicts me just to get my attention. But his learning curve is
too shallow to realize that I quit playing his game months ago
As always, Francis is truth challenged. Francis' last round of
ass-kicking (with Francis on the recieving end, as always) occurred
about 2 weeks ago. Francis, as usual, was demonstrated to be grossly
in error, and has since discontinued her defense of her erroneous
claims and lies (and the reader may interpret her silence as admission
that she lied).

But lest the reader forget, Francis also claims that she is the first
to admit when she is wrong -- of course, that statement was also a lie
(as Francis has yet to retract her erroneous claims).

Retief
Terryc
2008-02-21 01:19:55 UTC
Permalink
Post by Day Brown
Crunch the numbers. 98% of the population lives in urban areas. When
they leave the city,
The big factor in favour of out of citiy people is that as city people
get further and further away from the city, their fear level starts to
rise, thus cutting their resolve and effectiveness.

This is why sniping is an effective counter target.
Post by Day Brown
they'll go for the easy targets first,
Put your important stuff in ground cache and set booby traps as you
withdraw. It is all part of confirming their belief that the countryside
is dangerous.
Post by Day Brown
the small towns and farms along the way.
Some of them will get killed, but out numbering the farmers 50:1,
all the farmers will.
He who fights and runs away, lives to fight another day.
Post by Day Brown
Even if the farmers take out ten for every one, that leaves
40 moving on to the next target.
OOOOH, Shock, Horror, What a load of Bullshit.

I'd say more than evenly matched. Once the bullets start flying and
hitting their targets, those city arseholes are gong to become very
uncertain and have exceedingly low effectiveness.

In general, country towns do have a sense of community and cohesin (sp
suxs) and would respond quicker, as a team to events. They would also be
firing from defensive situations and less exposed than an advancing mob,

The country town also has a short supply chain compared to the mobs
longer, tenious (snipers, sabotage), supply chain.

Remember, country towns would have a comparative goldmine of explosives
laid on from the surrounding farms (well, here they do).
Post by Day Brown
And those *survivors* will be the smarter ones. The guy sitting in the
bunker dont get any practice. Those coming his way practice every step
of the way, and will prolly show up in swat teams of 20-50.
Lol, now we know that you are having another sexual fantasy. Please
explain how you are going to convert a pile of lard arse, SUV driving
clerical staff who can not shoot into a SWAT team?
Post by Day Brown
A lot
would depend on what time of year, whether there is snow cover. Nobody
will be plowing the Interstates.
lol, road bridges would be the first to go
Post by Day Brown
Some smart guys will steal a train.
And do what? Ever met a country town that doesn't have oxy-acetylene?
There is an easier method that anyone who knows anything about railways
can work out. No train would be coming into town, or leaving, unless it
was wanted.
Post by Day Brown
Or be around months later.
So what are these townies going to live one for these months?
Post by Day Brown
And after
a few years of sporadic gang warfare, warlords will emerge who are
better at it, who'll be sending goon squads by to collect "protection
money", ie taxes.
Lol, there are few problems with your wet dream spanky boy.

Warlords only exist when the population is uneducated peasants.

A warlord economy only benefits the guy at the top. The rest are serfs
or slaves living at the war lords Pleasure.

you can workout the rest.
Day Brown
2008-02-21 07:19:45 UTC
Permalink
YMMV. The decline of empires have always had some regions fall into
utter anarchy and famine and others that saw what was coming down and
organized "well regulated militias" to defend their common interests
effectively.

Communities in high population density areas, or near large urban
centers will be at great risk. Others more than a tankfull of gas away
will prolly do dramatically better. But even this depends on how rapid
the decline is. Some empires have imploded rapidly, while others, like
the Byzantine, shed unprofitable provinces bit by bit and hung on for
centuries.

The collapse of the Soviet Union is a recent example, with some parts
having demagoguery, famine, anarchy, civil war and genocide, while
others, like the Baltic nations, got reorganized quickly. Chechnya had
civil war, life there is still miserable, but the lights in Riga,
Tallin, and Vilna didnt even blink.

The smart money got out of Rome long before, and what fell to the
barbarians was an empty shell. Much of that money moved to
Constantinople, and by the time it fell, the smart money had moved to
Vienna and Kiev. Much of the money in the undeveloping world is now
moving to the EU and the US.

Whether a bunker will be useful or not depends enormously on local
conditions and what time of year crisis emerges, and at what rate
things come apart. The only example I see in European history of
single couples making it is when the Slavs moved into areas that had
been abandoned and grown up with brush that hid their homesteads. And
that was in an era when the population was much less dense than now.

The vast majority of the postings in the survivalists lists focus on
the weaponry and supplies needed for a time, but real survival, which
the Slavs show us, came from homesteading in the bush by people who
knew how to grow their own food. The almost total lack of threads
having to do with farming and livestock breeding doe not bode well for
long term survival by those doing the posting.

Much of it looks like self righteous rants looking forward to a period
when their aggressive instincts will be given free reign with the
assumption that they will always be the better shots.
Frank Gilliland
2008-02-21 07:37:46 UTC
Permalink
On Wed, 20 Feb 2008 23:19:45 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
<***@hughes.net> wrote in
<12668840-16cd-4f67-badd-***@i12g2000prf.googlegroups.com>:

<snip>
Post by Day Brown
The vast majority of the postings in the survivalists lists focus on
the weaponry and supplies needed for a time, but real survival, which
the Slavs show us, came from homesteading in the bush by people who
knew how to grow their own food. The almost total lack of threads
having to do with farming and livestock breeding doe not bode well for
long term survival by those doing the posting.
Much of it looks like self righteous rants looking forward to a period
when their aggressive instincts will be given free reign with the
assumption that they will always be the better shots.
A much-hated poster to this group defined these types of survivalists
as "campers with guns". The guy was a total basket-case, but at least
he had enough clarity to tell a good apple from a rotten one.

BTW, excellent post.
Day Brown
2008-02-21 19:42:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by Frank Gilliland
BTW, excellent post.
Well thanx Frank, but it'd be nice to see a thread or forum on the
variation of post crash scenarios. Its hard to imagine the entire USA
going to hell in a basket all at the same speed to the same depth. Its
just not organized well enuf to do that.

"The Celts" outlines the construction of hill forts going all the way
back to the 4th millennium. "The Early Slavs" by Barford sees them
springing up at various defensible positions going back to the
abandonment of Dacia by the Romans. But in either case, after a period
of time most of these fortifications are abandoned. And the bunkers
now being built will be abandoned as well. Hell, some in the Ozarks
already are.

The basket cases you refer to have been building bunkers in the Ozark
boonies for decades; but then, when the shit failed to hit the fan
after a couple years left it all. There was a notorious case at Alread
a few years ago. Survivalists can get in love triangles too. After
they killed him, they diced him up with a chainsaw and then tried to
use the tractor to till his ass in a corn field. it was messy.

When the cops arrived, they fled into the forest, and it took 3 weeks
to find them. Cops had road blocks up everywhere even tho they fled on
foot. The sheer stupidity of both law enforcement and the flatlanders
moving in up here never ceases to make me shake my head. AFAICT,
that's representative of the entire nation. which is why those few of
us who are rational, are concerned.

But at the same time, I can see how certain areas would draw more of
the smart money and concerned citizenry. These people, going all the
way back to the 4th mil, have always found ways to organize 'well
regulated militias' to defend their common interests. Local trading
networks have always emerged soon as the rubble quits bouncing. Those
which have a well managed local resource base with a lower cost of
management will draw in more of the talented and rational, while fools
prefer demagogues pandering to their ethnicity, religion, and partisan
politics, be they liberal or Randian.

Since usenet is global, it'd be interesting to hear reports from other
regions that appear to be more rational and able to adapt quickly to
crisis.
Terryc
2008-02-22 00:23:19 UTC
Permalink
Post by Day Brown
Post by Frank Gilliland
BTW, excellent post.
Well thanx Frank, but it'd be nice to see a thread or forum on the
variation of post crash scenarios. Its hard to imagine the entire USA
going to hell in a basket all at the same speed to the same depth. Its
just not organized well enuf to do that.
"The Celts" outlines the construction of hill forts going all the way
back to the 4th millennium.
Fortifications serve three purposes;

1) as last ditch protection of people and portable assests when the
enemy is on your patch. Meanwhile everything else outside is pillaged
and razed.

2) An assembly/storage/service point for a armed force to sally forth
againt invaders early one. Basically, the start of regular armies, but
it also allowed militia to have equipment on standby that was kept fully
serviceable.

3) a residence for an armed force to keep a conquered land in check.

The problem is that none of these purposes actually produce food,
equipment, etc, so a real survivalist would also be looking at that.
Post by Day Brown
The basket cases you refer to have been building bunkers in the Ozark
boonies for decades; but then, when the shit failed to hit the fan
after a couple years left it all.
Do you think they were real survivalists? Or just believers in a
particular apocalyse?
Day Brown
2008-02-22 06:36:05 UTC
Permalink
Post by Terryc
Do you think they were real survivalists? Or just believers in a
particular apocalyse?
Care to define the term? If TSHTF, those who think out of the box and
are more immune to group think tend to do better. Those who see it
coming will include some who are immune to group think because of
mental deviance. As Socrates noted, sometimes the whacko is the only
one who can see the emperor has no clothes.

In any case, while I dont know why folks gave it up, but I know of a
couple dozen abandoned homesteads in the boonies. And that's without
looking for them. The plat maps are littered with out of state owners
that nobody knows or has ever seen. (It'd prolly pay to look into what
happens to land that went back to the state for back taxes)

At the same time, I know some here now, both recent arrivals and those
who've been here for decades, who expect societal collapse. Some, more
interested in a healthy lifestyle with organic gardens, have done
nothing about organizing well regulated militias to protect their
investment, and some who are more military minded, go on about the
weaponry, but cant really survive without the veteran's benefits.
You'd think the two groups, both online and in local communities,
would see a common interest and discuss means of cooperation.

<What you are saying is that the money in Rome was in the Roman
Catholic
Church and when the pope relocated, they went with him. >
No, there were many who saw the decline before Christianity took over.
Then too, emperors realized that the Preatorian guard, like the CIA,
had a habit of assassinating leadership hoping to improve their own
power. As a result, they spent less and less time in Rome, and many
never even set foot in the place. By the time of Constantine, emperors
had not ruled from Rome for a couple hundred years.

Partly this can be seen in the rule of Marcus Aurelius, who spent
almost his entire career directing the legions from a base on the
Danube, where he could more conveniently move them from Germany to
Persia and back. There were also ongoing efforts to conquer Dacia
(Romania), Germany being regarded as a lost cause because of what
happened to gen Varus.

Naturally, this resulted in a lotta traffic going thru Byzantium,
which was where the smart money moved. It was also the western
terminus of the Silk Road before it became known as Constantinople. If
you take the time to actually read Gibbon's "The Decline and Fall of
the Roman Empire" (http://www.daybrown.org/gibbon/gibbon.html for
example) you find out the decline was a very sporadic and confusing
process with Rome drawn back from the brink a few times, but in
general with greater investment shifting to Byzantium over the
centuries.

The most telling incident reported by Gibbon, was when Constantine
converted the temple of Jupiter into a church. Before he handed it
over to the bishops (who he chose) he cleaned it of all idolatry.
Which added up to 6 tons of gold he took to build Constantinople. The
conversion of the rest of the Roman pagan temples into churches was a
nobrainer. The reason we have the term "pagan", was that in Latin, it
meant the "country people", who didnt have the money to bother
converting into Christians.

In terms of survival, its worth noting that Christianity is so
enmeshed with the current leadership, that if TSHTF, there will be a
great abandonment of the faith. When Zorastrianism could not protect
the leadership of Persia from Alexander the Great, it suffered the
same fate. Relatively few of those I've come to know well enuf to
know, who moved back to the boonies, are Christian. the "neopagan",
"wiccans" or whatever have a greater interest in organic growing and
livetock, and will therefore, after a crash, be seen as prescient and
Christians as fools.

Long before Rome fell, there were those who thot it was too corrupt to
continue, and left to found spiritual communities, not unlike Waco,
but based on other revered writings or philosophers. Both the Vikings
of the North, and the Slavs of the East, repeatedly raided Christian
communities. Therefore the ascetic lifestyle evolved to make them into
poor, but harder, targets. Recently, archeologists digging into the
Slavic hillforts have noted the absence of gold and silver. If you map
the gold & silver hoards that have been found, the earlier all were
within the Roman empire. Only later, as the Viking free trade zone
evolved, up the rivers from the Black Sea, then down rivers to the
Baltic, and on across Scandinavia all the way to Iceland, do we see
silver hoards again found. Often with Islamic coins.

Point being that trade, and economic opportunity shifts with the
decline of empire, and with very short interruputions, reorganizes in
new systems. A young person today, who survives the initial crisis,
can expect to see new opportunities offering a long and comfortable
lifestyle. He wont be paying social security taxes.
b***@yahoo.com
2008-02-22 19:42:51 UTC
Permalink
On Thu, 21 Feb 2008 22:36:05 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
Post by Terryc
Do you think they were real survivalists? Or just believers in a
particular apocalyse?
Care to define the term? If TSHTF, those who think out of the box and
are more immune to group think tend to do better. Those who see it
coming will include some who are immune to group think because of
mental deviance. As Socrates noted, sometimes the whacko is the only
one who can see the emperor has no clothes.
In any case, while I dont know why folks gave it up, but I know of a
couple dozen abandoned homesteads in the boonies. And that's without
looking for them. The plat maps are littered with out of state owners
that nobody knows or has ever seen. (It'd prolly pay to look into what
happens to land that went back to the state for back taxes)
At the same time, I know some here now, both recent arrivals and those
who've been here for decades, who expect societal collapse. Some, more
interested in a healthy lifestyle with organic gardens, have done
nothing about organizing well regulated militias to protect their
investment, and some who are more military minded, go on about the
weaponry, but cant really survive without the veteran's benefits.
You'd think the two groups, both online and in local communities,
would see a common interest and discuss means of cooperation.
<What you are saying is that the money in Rome was in the Roman
Catholic
Church and when the pope relocated, they went with him. >
No, there were many who saw the decline before Christianity took over.
Then too, emperors realized that the Preatorian guard, like the CIA,
had a habit of assassinating leadership hoping to improve their own
power. As a result, they spent less and less time in Rome, and many
never even set foot in the place. By the time of Constantine, emperors
had not ruled from Rome for a couple hundred years.
Partly this can be seen in the rule of Marcus Aurelius, who spent
almost his entire career directing the legions from a base on the
Danube, where he could more conveniently move them from Germany to
Persia and back. There were also ongoing efforts to conquer Dacia
(Romania), Germany being regarded as a lost cause because of what
happened to gen Varus.
Naturally, this resulted in a lotta traffic going thru Byzantium,
which was where the smart money moved. It was also the western
terminus of the Silk Road before it became known as Constantinople. If
you take the time to actually read Gibbon's "The Decline and Fall of
the Roman Empire" (http://www.daybrown.org/gibbon/gibbon.html for
example) you find out the decline was a very sporadic and confusing
process with Rome drawn back from the brink a few times, but in
general with greater investment shifting to Byzantium over the
centuries.
The most telling incident reported by Gibbon, was when Constantine
converted the temple of Jupiter into a church. Before he handed it
over to the bishops (who he chose) he cleaned it of all idolatry.
Which added up to 6 tons of gold he took to build Constantinople. The
conversion of the rest of the Roman pagan temples into churches was a
nobrainer. The reason we have the term "pagan", was that in Latin, it
meant the "country people", who didnt have the money to bother
converting into Christians.
In terms of survival, its worth noting that Christianity is so
enmeshed with the current leadership, that if TSHTF, there will be a
great abandonment of the faith. When Zorastrianism could not protect
the leadership of Persia from Alexander the Great, it suffered the
same fate. Relatively few of those I've come to know well enuf to
know, who moved back to the boonies, are Christian. the "neopagan",
"wiccans" or whatever have a greater interest in organic growing and
livetock, and will therefore, after a crash, be seen as prescient and
Christians as fools.
Long before Rome fell, there were those who thot it was too corrupt to
continue, and left to found spiritual communities, not unlike Waco,
but based on other revered writings or philosophers. Both the Vikings
of the North, and the Slavs of the East, repeatedly raided Christian
communities. Therefore the ascetic lifestyle evolved to make them into
poor, but harder, targets. Recently, archeologists digging into the
Slavic hillforts have noted the absence of gold and silver. If you map
the gold & silver hoards that have been found, the earlier all were
within the Roman empire. Only later, as the Viking free trade zone
evolved, up the rivers from the Black Sea, then down rivers to the
Baltic, and on across Scandinavia all the way to Iceland, do we see
silver hoards again found. Often with Islamic coins.
Point being that trade, and economic opportunity shifts with the
decline of empire, and with very short interruputions, reorganizes in
new systems. A young person today, who survives the initial crisis,
can expect to see new opportunities offering a long and comfortable
lifestyle. He wont be paying social security taxes.
I read that the movement from Rome to other communities in the east
was like you say, often a voluntary, insightful escape anticipating
the Fall, but also that the emperors of Greece and Rome were in the
habit of exiling wealthy competition rather than assassinating them.
Consequently, the region we call Byzantium grew up, which was based on
a spin-off of Hellenism they call "Hellenistic" and the wealth of
suburbanites. Of course, nearby states integrated cultures and
Orthodox Christianity. Constantine rebuilt Istanbul and called it
Constantinople, then Turks moved in.

I think Byzantine Empire escaped most of the sacking of Rome after the
4th C. and was the flowering of civilization, with abstract art and
influences from Asia. There's a couple exceptionally good poems on
this by Yeats, who wants to survive, not in Western Civilization, but
Byzantium. Maybe this supports your idea that escaping to an
alternate life-style is a good idea. bookburn
Day Brown
2008-02-22 20:27:18 UTC
Permalink
Yes, Byzantium is worth looking into. The smart money leaving Rome
understood that it was the terminus of both the Silk Road from the
East, but the Amber road from the Viking North. The only competition
was Astrakhan, on the Volga Delta at the Caspian, and the Khazar
oxcarts overland from there to connect with the Viking amber road near
Kiev on the Dneipr.

Its kinda hard to evaluate the economic impact because Kiev and the
other Viking trade centers were all in timber frame, and didnt leave
any carved marble for archeologists to look at. But from Astrakhan all
the way to the Baltic, they've found hoards of Islamic and Persian
coins. Somebody was making a hell of a lotta money, but they werent
wasting it on carving marble.

And just to show how smart the bastards were, The Khazar elite tried
both Christianity and Islam, decided they were both nuts, and
converted to Judaism in the late 8th or early 9th century. We know
their descendants as the Ashkenazic Jews. (Therefore, they didnt
return to Israel, they never lived there in the first place) its this
devil in the details in obscure history that will have a lot to do
with who gets to survive, much less even prosper.

Building a bunker will prolly get you thru the first few months after
a crash. Building a community with people rational enuf to know what
the fuck is coming down, and using the diversity of their skills to
manage a local resource base... will get you thru the rest of your
life. Of course they will be armed, and of course would include some
with military experience. But the problem we have now, is largely
brought down upon us by the efforts of the ruling warior classes to
maintain their power at the expense of everyone else. Those jackasses
cant even protect themselves from WMD or nukes, much less the rest of
us.

Nor will all urban areas be total disasters. After Katrina, the
(white) cops sealed off the bridge across to Algiers. Nobody knows
about Algiers, It didnt flood. Its all white. Nobody talks about that
either. Its on the same Mississippi with the same access to the Gulf
of Mexico, with the same kind of docks for barge and freighter
traffic. Then too, there's the *oil* and *gas* wells in the swamps
behind it, and the refineries... to keep their "well regulated
Militia" patrol boats and vehicles controlling a perimeter.

The Cajuns who provide the crabs, crawdads, fish, rice, Tobasco, and
Plaquimine Oranges are racist, but wont mind white folks moving in.
They wont need no Mexican border fence; they got the river and the
swamps to do that.

There's Isle Royale in Lake Superior, or other more populated islands
in the Great Lakes that'd be real hard targets also, but that limited
access is also a challenge to be properly prepared *on your own* to
survive the winters. And grow enuf to eat during the short summers, on
ground, that had it been fertile, would already be farmed.

I've also met folks who moved into the Ozarks after giving it up in
Northern NM, AZ, CA, or upland parts of OR & WA. If you cant farm
without water in the irrigation ditch, you know there'll be problems.
Just *where* you choose to put the bunker will determine whether you
survive or not more than what you make it out of, or stock it with.
There are obscure locations like the above that are far more
promising...
b***@yahoo.com
2008-02-22 23:57:22 UTC
Permalink
On Fri, 22 Feb 2008 12:27:18 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
Yes, Byzantium is worth looking into. The smart money leaving Rome
understood that it was the terminus of both the Silk Road from the
East, but the Amber road from the Viking North. The only competition
was Astrakhan, on the Volga Delta at the Caspian, and the Khazar
oxcarts overland from there to connect with the Viking amber road near
Kiev on the Dneipr.
Its kinda hard to evaluate the economic impact because Kiev and the
other Viking trade centers were all in timber frame, and didnt leave
any carved marble for archeologists to look at. But from Astrakhan all
the way to the Baltic, they've found hoards of Islamic and Persian
coins. Somebody was making a hell of a lotta money, but they werent
wasting it on carving marble.
And just to show how smart the bastards were, The Khazar elite tried
both Christianity and Islam, decided they were both nuts, and
converted to Judaism in the late 8th or early 9th century. We know
their descendants as the Ashkenazic Jews. (Therefore, they didnt
return to Israel, they never lived there in the first place) its this
devil in the details in obscure history that will have a lot to do
with who gets to survive, much less even prosper.
Building a bunker will prolly get you thru the first few months after
a crash. Building a community with people rational enuf to know what
the fuck is coming down, and using the diversity of their skills to
manage a local resource base... will get you thru the rest of your
life. Of course they will be armed, and of course would include some
with military experience. But the problem we have now, is largely
brought down upon us by the efforts of the ruling warior classes to
maintain their power at the expense of everyone else. Those jackasses
cant even protect themselves from WMD or nukes, much less the rest of
us.
Nor will all urban areas be total disasters. After Katrina, the
(white) cops sealed off the bridge across to Algiers. Nobody knows
about Algiers, It didnt flood. Its all white. Nobody talks about that
either. Its on the same Mississippi with the same access to the Gulf
of Mexico, with the same kind of docks for barge and freighter
traffic. Then too, there's the *oil* and *gas* wells in the swamps
behind it, and the refineries... to keep their "well regulated
Militia" patrol boats and vehicles controlling a perimeter.
The Cajuns who provide the crabs, crawdads, fish, rice, Tobasco, and
Plaquimine Oranges are racist, but wont mind white folks moving in.
They wont need no Mexican border fence; they got the river and the
swamps to do that.
There's Isle Royale in Lake Superior, or other more populated islands
in the Great Lakes that'd be real hard targets also, but that limited
access is also a challenge to be properly prepared *on your own* to
survive the winters. And grow enuf to eat during the short summers, on
ground, that had it been fertile, would already be farmed.
I've also met folks who moved into the Ozarks after giving it up in
Northern NM, AZ, CA, or upland parts of OR & WA. If you cant farm
without water in the irrigation ditch, you know there'll be problems.
Just *where* you choose to put the bunker will determine whether you
survive or not more than what you make it out of, or stock it with.
There are obscure locations like the above that are far more
promising...
My perverse theory is to check out the places people have already
abandoned, like the places in Pennsylvania where the steel mills used
to be. I know some yuppies have moved not away from urban centers but
into old sections of the downtown, where they can buy a whole building
for cheap and rebuild inside.

Problem with setting up an isolated community is that you alienate a
lot of people. In Canada, BC I think, there was some religious sect
like Mennonites that established themselves in a separate community of
several hundred, but government took action against them.

On the other hand, there has been a large community of Russian
Orthodox "old believers" in BC for a long time, living in several
villages along the same river system, speaking Russian, observing old
customs, etc.. They didn't accept the Industrial Revolution for
religious reasons and forced out by Cossacks, I think. Alaska has
some Russian "old believers" living communally, too; not refugees
directly from Russia, but ones migrating from China and South America,
then collecting to live in a village near Homer.

Same thing when US retirees move to another country. A whole town in
Nebraska or Indiana moved to a village in Mexico. Then, after years
of trying to be self-sufficient and independent, Mexicans took a
dislike to them and started showing hostility for not sharing cultural
values, etc.. Brits have also been labeled that way around the world,
for working as talented foreigners , but forming their own "colonies."

What's the place of separatism in a democracy?
Day Brown
2008-02-23 07:10:36 UTC
Permalink
Post by b***@yahoo.com
What's the place of separatism in a democracy?
Polite discourse appreciated. The way to organize is not as a
religious cult, but a corporation. A company town.

One type of plan that works and gets support- is a business plan. I.
for instance, already grow a number of herbs for birth control and
abortions. Naturally, religious fundies are not going to want to join
our operations. And while now the business side is trivial, in a post
crash economy, its a real winner. You can pick a business line that
will only appeal to the more rational.

I'm sure there will be other examples as well of entrepreneurial
opportunities that work now, as well as work in a dramatically
stressed economy. In my case, the system cant charge me with providing
abortions without also admitting that herbs can work, which it cant do
because that would cut into the profits of the transnationals now in
charge. They turn a blind eye.

Recently, I added an Usnea potion to my line. Its so powerful an
antibiotic it'll cure toothaches. Anyone expect dental services after
the crash? A Cherokee witch turned me onto it, which I gather is good
for bullet holes.

If you consult the German Commission E Monograph on Herbs, you can
find out about scores of herbs that were proven in scientific double
blind studies, which nobody in the USA knows about because of the hold
transnat pharma has on the media. In a post crash economy, some would
trade for their weight in gold, or at least silver. And of course,
nobody is gonna come to shoot my ass, at least til they figure out how
to grow their own.

Democracy really boils down to whether or not you can vote with your
feet or a U-haul. Otherwise, it means living under leadership selected
by people dumber than you are. The history is obscure, but the success
of the Aryans was not due to military conquest, but their assimilation
of new cultual values that worked better. The cultures that are the
most pure and most ancient, are also the most backward. Those who
worship the Almighty Dollar should remember her form is on the genine
silver coin, and that She does not lay down the rules you live by. You
havta wing it.

Mexicans and others with a strong sense of cultural identity cant
adopt new ways of life, and they pay for it. Usually to those who can.
This pisses them off, so I try to keep a low profile and stay out of
their way. But if need be, I have a 12 guage pump, lotsa double ought,
and I know where the hacksaw is. I also know who my friends are, and
have shared psychedelic potions with them, so I know more about my
friends than they know about theirs. Many of mine have both cunts and
guns, and know how to use both. Its an unbeatable combination.

There will be a lotta abandoned real estate after a crash. Most guys
think in terms of the national forest, but the real opportunities lie
in transnat pulp paper- which have logs for building, and
agribusiness- that if you know how to turn beef cattle into oxen, will
grow tons of food. There are a myriad scenarios besides holing up in a
bunker.
Frank Gilliland
2008-02-22 07:08:11 UTC
Permalink
On Thu, 21 Feb 2008 11:42:01 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
Post by Frank Gilliland
BTW, excellent post.
Well thanx Frank, but it'd be nice to see a thread or forum on the
variation of post crash scenarios.
There's really not that much to discuss. The post-crash reality will
be as varied as the pre-crash opinions on the subject. Undoubtedly
there will be people who struggle to keep what once was (call them
conservatives), while others (liberals) will attempt to start new and
supposedly better civilizations. Of course there will be raiders and
bunkers, mobs and individuals, predators and prey. If you can imagine
it, chances are someone will have already adopted it as a means of
survival. So expect anything and everything.
Post by Day Brown
Its hard to imagine the entire USA
going to hell in a basket all at the same speed to the same depth. Its
just not organized well enuf to do that.
A civilization is a network of many different systems -- economic,
political, social, infrastructure, health, education, law enforcement,
etc, etc. The failure of any one of those systems could precipitate a
cascade failure (crash) depending on two things: the strength of the
network that connects everything together, and how willing people are
to repair the part that failed. But the end result is the same -- if
the network fails, all the parts will fail in succession. So it really
doesn't really matter which one goes first. All that matters is if we
have the willingness to fix it when it does. If we don't then that's
when we will crash. How fast we crash depends on how fast the network
falls apart. We could all wake up one morning and throw in the towel.
Or allow civilization to erode gradually from neglect. Or continue to
fool ourselves with cosmetic fixes instead of sound structural repairs
until suddenly it all falls down..... the latter being my own personal
perception of what will happen.
Post by Day Brown
"The Celts" outlines the construction of hill forts going all the way
back to the 4th millennium. "The Early Slavs" by Barford sees them
springing up at various defensible positions going back to the
abandonment of Dacia by the Romans. But in either case, after a period
of time most of these fortifications are abandoned. And the bunkers
now being built will be abandoned as well. Hell, some in the Ozarks
already are.
The basket cases you refer to have been building bunkers in the Ozark
boonies for decades;
The guy I was talking about really -is- a basket case. He thinks he's
a communications porthole between invisible space alien invaders and
earthlings. No kidding.
Post by Day Brown
but then, when the shit failed to hit the fan
after a couple years left it all. There was a notorious case at Alread
a few years ago. Survivalists can get in love triangles too. After
they killed him, they diced him up with a chainsaw and then tried to
use the tractor to till his ass in a corn field. it was messy.
Hasn't anyone read "Fried Green Tomatoes"?
Post by Day Brown
When the cops arrived, they fled into the forest, and it took 3 weeks
to find them. Cops had road blocks up everywhere even tho they fled on
foot. The sheer stupidity of both law enforcement and the flatlanders
moving in up here never ceases to make me shake my head. AFAICT,
that's representative of the entire nation. which is why those few of
us who are rational, are concerned.
But at the same time, I can see how certain areas would draw more of
the smart money and concerned citizenry. These people, going all the
way back to the 4th mil, have always found ways to organize 'well
regulated militias' to defend their common interests. Local trading
networks have always emerged soon as the rubble quits bouncing. Those
which have a well managed local resource base with a lower cost of
management will draw in more of the talented and rational, while fools
prefer demagogues pandering to their ethnicity, religion, and partisan
politics, be they liberal or Randian.
Recovery is always regional and generally sporadic, usually because of
communication and transportation problems. But it always happens. The
only question is what will be the body count until it does. With the
world population so high that we can't feed everyone even now, the
count will certainly be high, and it might be a good idea to add nose
plugs to your survival kit. And maybe a quick recovery isn't such a
good thing.
Post by Day Brown
Since usenet is global, it'd be interesting to hear reports from other
regions that appear to be more rational and able to adapt quickly to
crisis.
I have a feeling that people in more Northern lattitudes will be able
to handle a global catastrophe much better than anywhere else. They
are used to extremes in just about everything. When TSHTF, that will
probably be my general direction.
h***@nospam.org
2008-02-22 14:35:34 UTC
Permalink
On Thu, 21 Feb 2008 23:08:11 -0800, Frank Gilliland
Post by Frank Gilliland
I have a feeling that people in more Northern lattitudes will be able
to handle a global catastrophe much better than anywhere else. They
are used to extremes in just about everything. When TSHTF, that will
probably be my general direction.
dude, depending on where you are now you had better not wait. Go now.


Hal
Retief
2008-02-24 18:33:03 UTC
Permalink
On Wed, 20 Feb 2008 23:37:46 -0800, Frank Gilliland
Post by Frank Gilliland
A much-hated poster to this group defined these types of survivalists
as "campers with guns". The guy was a total basket-case, but at least
he had enough clarity to tell a good apple from a rotten one.
Rotten apples like Francis?

Retief
Terryc
2008-02-22 00:13:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by Day Brown
YMMV. The decline of empires have always had some regions fall into
utter anarchy and famine and others that saw what was coming down and
organized "well regulated militias" to defend their common interests
effectively.
ATM, I think we are seeing some different factors. My thesis is that
whilst a modern city has a good economy, it is immune to local or
regional environmental failure effects. Until peak oil start to bite,
our modern transport systems are very cheap and have global reach, so
they just obtain their resources further afield.
Post by Day Brown
Communities in high population density areas, or near large urban
centers will be at great risk.
The biggest risk of high density/high population is nest pollution aka a
natural(not to humans) disease outbreak that thins the herd. Many die
because it overloads our just in time health systems. Suxs if it is your
ticket, but generally just a regular form of naural selection that
thumans can avoid, but choose not to.
Post by Day Brown
Others more than a tankfull of gas away will prolly do dramatically better.
In my books, old thinking.
Post by Day Brown
But even this depends on how rapid
the decline is. Some empires have imploded rapidly, while others, like
the Byzantine, shed unprofitable provinces bit by bit and hung on for
centuries.
Wrong thinking. Nations, regions, cities have momentum and it is very
hard to just kill it off. There is only human caused nuclear events, e.g
Hiroshima and Chernobyl, or proposed freak nature events e.g. massive
tsunamis, California slipping away, etc, which we are yet to see.
Post by Day Brown
The collapse of the Soviet Union is a recent example, with some parts
having demagoguery, famine, anarchy, civil war and genocide, while
others, like the Baltic nations, got reorganized quickly. Chechnya had
civil war, life there is still miserable, but the lights in Riga,
Tallin, and Vilna didnt even blink.
Which is the point I'm making. A radical chage of rulers can be a bit
cataclysmic, but if the new ones have a clue, then it is business as usual.
Post by Day Brown
The smart money got out of Rome long before, and what fell to the
barbarians was an empty shell. Much of that money moved to
Constantinople, and by the time it fell,
What you are saying is that the money in Rome was in the Roman Catholic
Church and when the pope relocated, they went with him.
Post by Day Brown
the smart money had moved to Vienna and Kiev. Much of the money in
the undeveloping world is now moving to the EU and the US.
Dictators have always rorted their countries treasury and sent it OS. I
doubt if anything is going into the US atm, unless you allow foreigners
to own realestate where becoming a landlord looks to be a good
retirement plan atm.
Post by Day Brown
Whether a bunker will be useful or not depends enormously on local
conditions and what time of year crisis emerges, and at what rate
things come apart. The only example I see in European history of
single couples making it is when the Slavs moved into areas that had
been abandoned and grown up with brush that hid their homesteads. And
that was in an era when the population was much less dense than now.
The problem with that seems to be a gradual slide into economic mire. If
you are not involved in your regional/national economy when it is
growing, then your wealth is shrinking.

In the modern world, a couple on a farm is just another pair of
gamblers, unless you know the weather patterns for the last 100 years
and know that you can survive through them. Then there is global warming
and the extreme weather variations it will bring. Our summer has been
almost tropical, but with lighter showers each day. No hot days at all.
Meanwhile the cousin in the Riverina is still in drought and has only
had two piddles of rain last year and one so far this year. A positive
income crop hasn't come off his and others land in five years.
Post by Day Brown
The vast majority of the postings in the survivalists lists focus on
the weaponry and supplies needed for a time, but real survival, which
the Slavs show us, came from homesteading in the bush by people who
knew how to grow their own food. The almost total lack of threads
having to do with farming and livestock breeding doe not bode well for
long term survival by those doing the posting.
Well, all survival is a gamble. You decide which are the most likely
problems to occur and prepare for those. It is a trade off between
living in the current world and preparing for the next.

Frankly, if I want real assistance with gardening, farming, livestock or
any skill, I ask elsewhere, where I can talk to experts and/or people
who are really doing it. It would be too much for this list to cover it all.

This list is good for discussing bunkering, or BOBings, etc because no
other list has that interest.
Retief
2008-02-24 18:33:03 UTC
Permalink
On Fri, 22 Feb 2008 11:13:35 +1100, Terryc
Post by Terryc
Post by Day Brown
But even this depends on how rapid
the decline is. Some empires have imploded rapidly, while others, like
Even these weren't "rapid" on the time scale you're talking. They
were relatively localized events, and left plenty of time to pack up
and move elsewhere (unless you didn't see the overt sign the the
barbarian hordes were at the gates).
Post by Terryc
Wrong thinking. Nations, regions, cities have momentum and it is very
hard to just kill it off. There is only human caused nuclear events, e.g
Hiroshima and Chernobyl, or proposed freak nature events e.g. massive
tsunamis, California slipping away, etc, which we are yet to see.
And even those events are localized. You can expect that such a
catastrophe will result in help and supplies pouring in. So you need
to survive the short term disruption, allowing you the time to leave
the affected area (or rebuild the affected area).

To really disrupt things, you need something rapid and global (e.g.
large meteor strike, supervolcano, biological pandemic).

Retief
Day Brown
2008-02-25 06:07:33 UTC
Permalink
I try to be clear, and thot I was in saying that YMMV, depending on
the time of year the distance from a great urban center, the kind of
terrain and the fertility of the land, and of course, the ability of a
local population to organize a well regulated militia, or whether its
each man in his own bunker.

Lets remember also that there are fit competent people in both urban
and rural areas. And some are lucky, some not. Then too, the rate and
degee of decline can vary as well. Leadership, or the lack thereof,
can make a huge diff. The Early Christians were convinced that the
Roman empire was so corrupt that Jesus would return in their own
lifetime. But every time it nearly came apart, some talented general,
Trajan, Diocletian, Justinian, etc, came outta nowhere and pulled it
back together.

China had 20 dynasties go down in the last 2500 years, but every time,
there were provincial capitals or the Silk Road cities that smart
money could flee to. There was a lotta variation as well when the USSR
collapsed. Parts of it were as bad as the usual crash scenario
depicted here, but the lights in Tallin, Riga, and Vilna didnt even
blink.

Cooler heads mite prevail and keep it together too. The oil exporting
economies are doing great right now, but if the dollar crashed, and
the US quit buying oil, then they'll get to find out how they like
diesel for breakfast. The US does, in fact, have enuf oil to keep
agribusiness in business growing food to feed everyone.

When you look at the ruins of great cities, you can often find the
villas of the rich that had been converted into forts with apartments
made by building more internal walls, blocking off doorways, and
bricking up outside windows. A couple dozen can easily arrange 24/7
security. As noted, there are a lotta folks running amok, but they run
out of frenzie after a few days.

In "Constant Battles" by LeBlanc, he noted that after a systemic
breakdown, warlords always emerge, and in this case, they'll be manned
by people who know military tactics and weaponry. The only question is
what their mobility will be. We've seen goon squads riding around in
the back of pickups in Africa. We can expect the same in the US. The
US also has much better supplied military bases that could decide
their own leadership, and then use the armor to take whatever they
want from whoever they think has it.

After a collapse, generals have always tried to maintain an effective
force, and sometimes suceeded. If the collapse is as rapid as often
stipulated here, then personnel will be stranded on base, and thus
stay organized. Only if the process is gradual enuf to permit them to
go awol to return to kin will military bases be shorthanded.

If someone has stocke up and wants to hole up in a bunker, I dont have
a problem with it. But there is a much wider range of choices
depending on where you are, and what relationships you have with
people in unlikely target zones.
Retief
2008-02-24 18:33:03 UTC
Permalink
On Wed, 20 Feb 2008 23:19:45 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
Whether a bunker will be useful or not depends enormously on local
conditions and what time of year crisis emerges, and at what rate
So you think/assume that the majority of the readers are "time capsule
survivalists". That they'll sit in their little bunkers, while their
betters rebuild society, so they can re-emerge to a restored society?
Post by Day Brown
The vast majority of the postings in the survivalists lists focus on
the weaponry and supplies needed for a time, but real survival, which
The most probable situations that are likely to arise are short term
disruptions and riots (lasting a few days or weeks), rather than a
full blown "everything is gone to hell, and we'd better start building
equipment with stone knives and bearskins".

For those short term disruptions, you'll want food and water stored
and firearms for protection.

Obviously, for long term disruptions you need land (or need to make a
deal with someone who has land) to provide a place to grow crops and
raise animals. But for a long term problem, you still need to be
prepared for the short term.
Post by Day Brown
the Slavs show us, came from homesteading in the bush by people who
knew how to grow their own food. The almost total lack of threads
having to do with farming and livestock breeding doe not bode well for
long term survival by those doing the posting.
Perhaps most readers are preparing only for short term disruptions
(the most probable scenario). And obviously, if you don't survive the
short term, you don't need to worry about the long term.

Is there some reason that you believe that everyone should prepare for
the same emergencies that you do?

Retief
Retief
2008-02-24 18:33:03 UTC
Permalink
On Thu, 21 Feb 2008 12:19:55 +1100, Terryc
Post by Terryc
Post by Day Brown
Crunch the numbers. 98% of the population lives in urban areas. When
they leave the city,
The big factor in favour of out of citiy people is that as city people
get further and further away from the city, their fear level starts to
rise, thus cutting their resolve and effectiveness.
Well, I don't expect to see much of a "deadly charge" from a bunch of
prissy soccer moms carrying their screaming kids... Maybe daddy will
run into a hail of bullets? Or maybe daddy will figure out that dying
ain't much of a livin'.
Post by Terryc
This is why sniping is an effective counter target.
Warn them off first. However, if they continue with their plans to
attack, then hunt them down and eliminate them, as you would any other
wild animal.
Post by Terryc
Post by Day Brown
Even if the farmers take out ten for every one, that leaves
40 moving on to the next target.
OOOOH, Shock, Horror, What a load of Bullshit.
Or more likely, that leaves 20 to care for the 30 wounded and dying...
Post by Terryc
I'd say more than evenly matched. Once the bullets start flying and
hitting their targets, those city arseholes are gong to become very
uncertain and have exceedingly low effectiveness.
Musket battles indicated a 3:1 ratio. Modern rapid fire firearms will
tilt that balance drastically more to the defender. Just as
machineguns in WW1 pretty well elimated the idea of massed charges...
Post by Terryc
Remember, country towns would have a comparative goldmine of explosives
laid on from the surrounding farms (well, here they do).
And you can expect that the locals are going to be relatively familair
with their own region (unlike the wandering urban masses)
Post by Terryc
Post by Day Brown
And those *survivors* will be the smarter ones. The guy sitting in the
bunker dont get any practice. Those coming his way practice every step
of the way, and will prolly show up in swat teams of 20-50.
Lol, now we know that you are having another sexual fantasy. Please
explain how you are going to convert a pile of lard arse, SUV driving
clerical staff who can not shoot into a SWAT team?
How many of them even own a firearm? I'm always amazed how few city
dwellers own a firearm...
Post by Terryc
Post by Day Brown
Or be around months later.
So what are these townies going to live one for these months?
Cannibals?

If they survived for months, it is probable that they have figured out
how to provide a relatively stable food source.

Keep in mind that the average person doesn't even have 3 days worth of
food in their home (and that is just stupid).
Post by Terryc
Post by Day Brown
And after
a few years of sporadic gang warfare, warlords will emerge who are
better at it, who'll be sending goon squads by to collect "protection
money", ie taxes.
Lol, there are few problems with your wet dream spanky boy.
Warlords only exist when the population is uneducated peasants.
And unarmed peasants...


Retief
Retief
2008-02-24 18:33:03 UTC
Permalink
On Wed, 20 Feb 2008 02:48:11 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
Crunch the numbers. 98% of the population lives in urban areas. When
they leave the city, they'll go for the easy targets first, the small
towns and farms along the way. Some of them will get killed, but out
numbering the farmers 50:1, all the farmers will. Even if the farmers
You're assuming that these untrained roving urbanites are going to
magically become hardened soldiers, who will continue their charge in
the face of gunfire.

It is far more likely that they will break and run, after they see a
few of their friends drop during the charge. Look up the history of
human wave attacks...
Post by Day Brown
take out ten for every one, that leaves 40 moving on to the next
target.
In the days of musket, it was assumed that the attacker would lose
about 3:1 over the defender in an attack.

So now we move from a firearm capable of 2-3 rounds per minute to one
capable of perhaps 40-50 rounds per minute (e.g. a self-loader with a
couple 20 round magazines).

You could be looking at an attacker to defender casualty rate of 40 or
50:1.

Are you going to continue your charge, after watching 50 of your urban
buddies fall down wounded, dying or dead?
Post by Day Brown
And those *survivors* will be the smarter ones. The guy sitting in the
bunker dont get any practice. Those coming his way practice every step
These attackers are going to be physically pretty weak after week
without food. Conversely, the defender is unlikely to lose all of his
training, having not practiced for the last few weeks (I don't lose
the skill that quick, do you?).
Post by Day Brown
of the way, and will prolly show up in swat teams of 20-50. A lot
Now these (most probably unarmed) urbanites are "SWAT teams"? Get
real...
Post by Day Brown
Or be around months later. The only thing that makes any sense is a
well regulated rural militia. Only that will have the manpower to
Get to know your neighbors.
Post by Day Brown
Those boys will be in business. They wont hunk in the bunker, but
*organize* to take whatever they want from whoever they think has it.
Hunkering for the long term is a poor plan, by any measure. You start
rebuilding the community quite quickly...

Retief
Too_Many_Tools
2008-03-10 00:40:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by Day Brown
Post by Terryc
Post by Day Brown
Well, its not upta me Bookburn. And at 68, hardly matters. If Madd
Max's boys came to shoot me, I've had my run, and cant complain.
There's a lot I think hill folks could be doing, but even if they did,
there's only 100,000  or so in a nation of hundreds of millions of
urbanites who could show up, out numbering local bunker defenders by
100 to one or more.
Lol, just because they can get there, doesn't mean they are going to be
significant or achieve anything.
How many guns can you shoot at once? They will figure out how many
shooters have to hit a bunker at the same time. In as much as they are
gonna starve anyway, they have nothing to loose. The Slav couples
survived, not by being able to shoot, but by being able to have such a
low carbon footprint nobody knew where they were. There were no
powerlines or roads leading to their cabins in the bush. They
backpacked *everything* in.
Yep...those who fade into the background will be those who survive.

Kinda like a cockroach.

TMT
b***@yahoo.com
2008-02-11 22:36:23 UTC
Permalink
On Mon, 11 Feb 2008 11:01:27 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
Post by b***@yahoo.com
Saying you can wait until TSHTF to learn basics is like the
grasshopper and ant story. As you remember, the grasshopper used the
summer to hop around, and when winter came, his legs were too cold to
jump. Ant kept busy and had his home built.
One strategy to deal with preparation of young for survival is, guess
what?, education. I think that public education should have a 4-H
Club facet to it, along with military and other tech training, so that
kids have a Boys and Girls Scouts Club to belong to. They really need
that for socialization and practical reasons, especially in the
summer. Every community could emphasize different skills and
objectives to be working on, whether urban survival, rural farming,
fishing, etc.. It's out there now, we just need much more of it. bb
Well, its not upta me Bookburn. And at 68, hardly matters. If Madd
Max's boys came to shoot me, I've had my run, and cant complain.
There's a lot I think hill folks could be doing, but even if they did,
there's only 100,000 or so in a nation of hundreds of millions of
urbanites who could show up, out numbering local bunker defenders by
100 to one or more.
Only well regulated militias would have any chance at all, but I dont
see any move to create them either. Greeks showed what unit cohesion
could do against the Persians. When Xenophon and the Ten Thousand left
Artaxerxes and his million man army, they were out numbered by 100 to
one, but lived to make history.
But the cammy jammy bunker boys stand no chance at all against an
organized SWAT team that keeps up the seige for 3-4 days til he falls
asleep. But militias have always been able to maintain 24/7
surveillance.
If the question is, Is there a plan?, I suspect that the answer is,
Yes, there are plans your ancestor put in place and you can revive.
The Boy and Girl Scout movement hits the nail on the head about
survival education, ISTM. And look at what your parents did about
organizing, like the Grange movement. Nice article on this right now
in the Anchorage Daily News,
http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/story/311450.html
Terryc
2008-02-12 03:14:33 UTC
Permalink
Post by b***@yahoo.com
The Boy and Girl Scout movement hits the nail on the head about
survival education, ISTM.
I don't know what scouting was like in the USA, but over here, the best
it taught was "bushcraft". At least I know my troop and later scouts
were also competent "pioneers", aka construction, but that was uncommon.

As to the other sex, well the virgin keepers were big on doillies on the
camp table, but not much else.
b***@yahoo.com
2008-02-12 05:29:51 UTC
Permalink
On Tue, 12 Feb 2008 14:14:33 +1100, Terryc
Post by Terryc
Post by b***@yahoo.com
The Boy and Girl Scout movement hits the nail on the head about
survival education, ISTM.
I don't know what scouting was like in the USA, but over here, the best
it taught was "bushcraft". At least I know my troop and later scouts
were also competent "pioneers", aka construction, but that was uncommon.
As to the other sex, well the virgin keepers were big on doillies on the
camp table, but not much else.
Well, you could earn badges for mastering the various skills, and wear
them on your uniform. I never heard much about how the Scout skills
relate to practical stuff, except the general idea that a Scout is
brave, true, and reverent or loyal, and such-like. I guess it was
after the ACLU and kindred minority movements that Scouts and even the
YMCA/YWCA lost moral ground. Not sure if the 4-H Club was affected by
the ACLU. bb
Terryc
2008-02-12 06:48:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by b***@yahoo.com
On Tue, 12 Feb 2008 14:14:33 +1100, Terryc
Post by Terryc
Post by b***@yahoo.com
The Boy and Girl Scout movement hits the nail on the head about
survival education, ISTM.
I don't know what scouting was like in the USA, but over here, the best
it taught was "bushcraft". At least I know my troop and later scouts
were also competent "pioneers", aka construction, but that was uncommon.
As to the other sex, well the virgin keepers were big on doillies on the
camp table, but not much else.
Well, you could earn badges for mastering the various skills, and wear
them on your uniform. I never heard much about how the Scout skills
relate to practical stuff, except the general idea that a Scout is
brave, true, and reverent or loyal, and such-like.
Well, if it was anything like over here, the usefulness of scouts ranged
from a social cliche to a really active outdoors group. It really
depended on the quality ofthe parent support and leader skills.

Note, scouts is generic term covering young people up 25 years of age in
this country.

As boys in the 11-15 years age, we loved going into our district camp
site after city scouts had had camps there as we found heaps of gear
left behind. My patrol never lacked in that reguard.
Post by b***@yahoo.com
I guess it was
after the ACLU and kindred minority movements that Scouts and even the
YMCA/YWCA lost moral ground. Not sure if the 4-H Club was affected by
the ACLU. bb
Not really sure what you are getting at here. Scouts were inclusive in
the 70's when I was a member. I know our group bordered a low income
area and had "cheap" uniforms, etc to help these families. They had no
"moral ground" to loose.

Our group units grew when we had good, active, keen leaders who either
knew their stuff or were willling to learn[1]. Once that stops, then the
rot sets in and kids loose interest for more exciting places.

[1] The first and worst mistake leaders make is forgetting that they are
not there to lead.

If scouting is dieing, it is because it has forgotten what it was
created for, which was to take delinquent children from London Streets
and show them what they could achieve. It must have something because
many organisations, public, private and government keep trying to do the
same thing.

The guy who kicked it off may have been a pompous upper class twit, but
he used survival skills learnt in combat and included them in scouting.
Day Brown
2008-02-12 07:23:04 UTC
Permalink
Its not the ant and the grasshopper, unless you think of "the ant" in
the plural form. A single ant cant do diddly squat. Its the
*organization* ants have that have kept them going for millions of
years. If the proverbial SHTF, it will be the organization that some
communities muster that will save their asses while the rest die off
from the combination of famine and violence.

Psychologically, you dont see bandit gangs of more than 50, which has
to do with hominid evolution in small tribes that had about that many
warriors. Not only is there no honor among theives, there's no unit
cohesion either. Its those who have the self control to manage a
resource base that can turn that talent into an effective well
regulated militia. Its been that way since Thucydides. Its how the
Jews, out numbered 20:1 were able to establish themselves in Israel.

The people who work the land have an advantage also in being
physically fit. Working outside does that to you. The exercise also
sharpens the mind, and working together builds unit cohesion. Owning
land gives you familiarity with a given terrain. Ask Von Clausewitz
what that'll do for you. Yes, there is no sure thing, but there is a
bst bet.
Strabo
2008-02-13 03:47:22 UTC
Permalink
Post by Day Brown
Its not the ant and the grasshopper, unless you think of "the ant" in
the plural form. A single ant cant do diddly squat. Its the
*organization* ants have that have kept them going for millions of
years. If the proverbial SHTF, it will be the organization that some
communities muster that will save their asses while the rest die off
from the combination of famine and violence.
The author of this moral was not very observant.
Post by Day Brown
Psychologically, you dont see bandit gangs of more than 50, which has
to do with hominid evolution in small tribes that had about that many
warriors. Not only is there no honor among theives, there's no unit
cohesion either. Its those who have the self control to manage a
resource base that can turn that talent into an effective well
regulated militia. Its been that way since Thucydides. Its how the
Jews, out numbered 20:1 were able to establish themselves in Israel.
And got themselves thrown out, by their own god.
Post by Day Brown
The people who work the land have an advantage also in being
physically fit. Working outside does that to you. The exercise also
sharpens the mind, and working together builds unit cohesion. Owning
land gives you familiarity with a given terrain. Ask Von Clausewitz
what that'll do for you. Yes, there is no sure thing, but there is a
bst bet.
A good point.

Mens sana in corpere sano.
t***@taxrefusal.com
2008-02-28 07:42:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by Day Brown
I see Kunstler came out with another apocalyptic book. seems like one
comes out every month now. Its easy to make the case that TSHTF, but
what to do about that seems to be limited to ammo, guns, food, and
gas.
But whether all that will do you any good depends on where you are to
start with, where you go, and who will be there ahead of you. There's
a lotta infantry vets in the Ozarks who know how to setup an ambush.
It wont be like a movie or video game; you dont get to drive and shoot
at the same time, and those shooting back are not as stupid.
I aint so sure stocking a bunker is such a good idea either. those
I've seen posting seem like they'd go postal after a few weeks.
So- has anyone written a more thot out response to societal collapse?
Not that it is much different apprach, but you might want to read the
article "Humanity, Peak Oil & TEOTWAWKI" as found at:

http://www.taxrefusal.com/index-TEOTWAWKI.html
Frank Gilliland
2008-02-28 09:54:52 UTC
Permalink
On Wed, 27 Feb 2008 23:42:29 -0800 (PST), ***@taxrefusal.com wrote
in
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
Post by Day Brown
I see Kunstler came out with another apocalyptic book. seems like one
comes out every month now. Its easy to make the case that TSHTF, but
what to do about that seems to be limited to ammo, guns, food, and
gas.
But whether all that will do you any good depends on where you are to
start with, where you go, and who will be there ahead of you. There's
a lotta infantry vets in the Ozarks who know how to setup an ambush.
It wont be like a movie or video game; you dont get to drive and shoot
at the same time, and those shooting back are not as stupid.
I aint so sure stocking a bunker is such a good idea either. those
I've seen posting seem like they'd go postal after a few weeks.
So- has anyone written a more thot out response to societal collapse?
Not that it is much different apprach, but you might want to read the
http://www.taxrefusal.com/index-TEOTWAWKI.html
"Yet, there is no other known energy source, individual or collective,
that will be able to replace / supplant the energy now supplied to us
by conventional oil."


Wrong:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_power

"Fusion power commonly proposes the use of deuterium, an isotope of
hydrogen, as fuel and in many current designs also use lithium.
Assuming a fusion energy output equal to the current global output and
that this does not increase in the future, then the known current
lithium reserves would last 3000 years, lithium from sea water would
last 60 million years, and a more complicated fusion process using
only deuterium from sea water would have fuel for 150 billion years."

More info:

http://fusionpower.org/InformationFusion.html
http://www.iter.org/
http://www.fusion.org.uk/
http://depts.washington.edu/ufa/
(which has an excellent resource links page)

Now THAT is "change I can believe in". Yet the award for the most
feeble attempt to appear as a proponent of fusion research goes to:

http://wwwofe.er.doe.gov/Program_Offices/fes.htm

Gee, I wonder why Barry Soetoro, Hillary Clintonstein and John McBush
haven't addressed such a potentially huge, Earth-changing topic.....
t***@taxrefusal.com
2008-02-28 14:59:18 UTC
Permalink
Post by Frank Gilliland
in
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
Post by Day Brown
I see Kunstler came out with another apocalyptic book. seems like one
comes out every month now. Its easy to make the case that TSHTF, but
what to do about that seems to be limited to ammo, guns, food, and
gas.
But whether all that will do you any good depends on where you are to
start with, where you go, and who will be there ahead of you. There's
a lotta infantry vets in the Ozarks who know how to setup an ambush.
It wont be like a movie or video game; you dont get to drive and shoot
at the same time, and those shooting back are not as stupid.
I aint so sure stocking a bunker is such a good idea either. those
I've seen posting seem like they'd go postal after a few weeks.
So- has anyone written a more thot out response to societal collapse?
Not that it is much different apprach, but you might want to read the
http://www.taxrefusal.com/index-TEOTWAWKI.html
"Yet, there is no other known energy source, individual or collective,
that will be able to replace / supplant the energy now supplied to us
by conventional oil."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_power
"Fusion power commonly proposes the use of deuterium, an isotope of
hydrogen, as fuel and in many current designs also use lithium.
Assuming a fusion energy output equal to the current global output and
that this does not increase in the future, then the known current
lithium reserves would last 3000 years, lithium from sea water would
last 60 million years, and a more complicated fusion process using
only deuterium from sea water would have fuel for 150 billion years."
http://fusionpower.org/InformationFusion.htmlhttp://www.iter.org/http://www.fusion.org.uk/http://depts.washington.edu/ufa/
  (which has an excellent resource links page)
Now THAT is "change I can believe in". Yet the award for the most
http://wwwofe.er.doe.gov/Program_Offices/fes.htm
Gee, I wonder why Barry Soetoro, Hillary Clintonstein and John McBush
haven't addressed such a potentially huge, Earth-changing topic.....- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
Unfortunately, the development of "Fusion Power" is no more advanced
today than it was some 50 years ago.

In fact, France has given up on its massive investment towards that
goal.

While this is not the forum to address such matters, "Thermodynamics"
enters the equation. One that we have not yet solved.

However, given sufficient time, it is entirely possible that future
day scientists will make "Fusion Power" possible. With it, we won't
have to rely on ill advised attempts to secure such as "Thorium" or
"Lithium" or "Deuterium" and a few other "iums" from the sea or
elsewheres.

Readers wishing to be brought to date with regard to the current state
of "Fusion Power" need but access "Energyresources" via Yahoo groups.
Therein you shall find posts by some of the world's leading
scientists. Scientists who have been associated with "Fusion Power"
since the day it first made the news.

You also may wish to contact Lawrence B.Crowell, an American nuclear
physicist and frequent poster to that group, with respect to any
questions.

Daniel J. Lavigne, Founder
International Humanity House
***********************************
http://www.taxrefusal.com
Frank Gilliland
2008-02-28 19:03:59 UTC
Permalink
On Thu, 28 Feb 2008 06:59:18 -0800 (PST), ***@taxrefusal.com wrote
in
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
Post by Frank Gilliland
in
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
Post by Day Brown
I see Kunstler came out with another apocalyptic book. seems like one
comes out every month now. Its easy to make the case that TSHTF, but
what to do about that seems to be limited to ammo, guns, food, and
gas.
But whether all that will do you any good depends on where you are to
start with, where you go, and who will be there ahead of you. There's
a lotta infantry vets in the Ozarks who know how to setup an ambush.
It wont be like a movie or video game; you dont get to drive and shoot
at the same time, and those shooting back are not as stupid.
I aint so sure stocking a bunker is such a good idea either. those
I've seen posting seem like they'd go postal after a few weeks.
So- has anyone written a more thot out response to societal collapse?
Not that it is much different apprach, but you might want to read the
http://www.taxrefusal.com/index-TEOTWAWKI.html
"Yet, there is no other known energy source, individual or collective,
that will be able to replace / supplant the energy now supplied to us
by conventional oil."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_power
"Fusion power commonly proposes the use of deuterium, an isotope of
hydrogen, as fuel and in many current designs also use lithium.
Assuming a fusion energy output equal to the current global output and
that this does not increase in the future, then the known current
lithium reserves would last 3000 years, lithium from sea water would
last 60 million years, and a more complicated fusion process using
only deuterium from sea water would have fuel for 150 billion years."
http://fusionpower.org/InformationFusion.htmlhttp://www.iter.org/http://www.fusion.org.uk/http://depts.washington.edu/ufa/
  (which has an excellent resource links page)
Now THAT is "change I can believe in". Yet the award for the most
http://wwwofe.er.doe.gov/Program_Offices/fes.htm
Gee, I wonder why Barry Soetoro, Hillary Clintonstein and John McBush
haven't addressed such a potentially huge, Earth-changing topic.....- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
Unfortunately, the development of "Fusion Power" is no more advanced
today than it was some 50 years ago.
Evidently you didn't bother to check out the links I posted. If you
had then you would have learned that lasers are used in one of the two
leading fusion technologies, and was even used to initiate the first
controlled deuterium/tritium fusion reaction. And, of course, we all
know that the laser was invented in 1960..... only 48 years ago. And
the continuing advancement of superconductors has been critical to the
refinement of magnetic containment technology. To me that sounds like
some significant advancements. It certainly isn't progressing as fast
as fission, but it's hardly stalled as you suggest.
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
In fact, France has given up on its massive investment towards that
goal.
Evidently you didn't bother to check out the links I posted. If you
had then you would have learned that the EU is heavily invested in
fusion technology. Considering the fact that 80% of the electricity in
France comes from fission reactors, I don't think they are turning
their backs to the prospect of fusion. Nor to the obvious economic
benefits of possibly being one of the first countries to have and
develop a practical fusion technology.
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
While this is not the forum to address such matters,
This topic is very relevant to this forum, since some of the most
likely global disaster scenarios are centered around energy (or,
rather, the lack thereof). And the best way to survive a disaster is
to prevent the disaster before it happens.
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
"Thermodynamics"
enters the equation. One that we have not yet solved.
Evidently you didn't bother to check out the links I posted. If you
had then you would have learned that the two major sticking points are
power amplification and plasma confinement. Once those are solved, say
goodbye to Exxon, Chevron and Saudi Arabia. And war. And famine. And
overpopulation. And global warming. And......
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
However, given sufficient time, it is entirely possible that future
day scientists will make "Fusion Power" possible.
Or maybe the problem will be solved next year by a couple bicycle
mechanics from Akron!!!
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
With it, we won't
have to rely on ill advised attempts to secure such as "Thorium" or
"Lithium" or "Deuterium" and a few other "iums" from the sea or
elsewheres.
...."ill advised"? And how did Thorium get into this conversation? I
thought I ditched her at the party.....
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
Readers wishing to be brought to date with regard to the current state
of "Fusion Power" need but access "Energyresources" via Yahoo groups.
Therein you shall find posts by some of the world's leading
scientists. Scientists who have been associated with "Fusion Power"
since the day it first made the news.
Evidently you didn't bother to check out the links I posted. If you
had would would have learned that fusion, and its potential, has been
publically known since well before WWII. Which would mean that these
"scientists" to which you refer are either heavily oxygenated nursing
home residents or net-surfing ghosts.
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
You also may wish to contact Lawrence B.Crowell, an American nuclear
physicist and frequent poster to that group, with respect to any
questions.
No thanks, I think I'll rely on the more objective opinions from the
consensus of the -living- and -practicing- scientific community.
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
Daniel J. Lavigne, Founder
International Humanity House
***********************************
http://www.taxrefusal.com
Perhaps you should limit your focus to tax evasion instead of dabbling
in topics that are beyond your sphere of influence.
t***@taxrefusal.com
2008-02-29 03:48:10 UTC
Permalink
Post by Frank Gilliland
in
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
Post by Frank Gilliland
in
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
Post by Day Brown
I see Kunstler came out with another apocalyptic book. seems like one
comes out every month now. Its easy to make the case that TSHTF, but
what to do about that seems to be limited to ammo, guns, food, and
gas.
But whether all that will do you any good depends on where you are to
start with, where you go, and who will be there ahead of you. There's
a lotta infantry vets in the Ozarks who know how to setup an ambush.
It wont be like a movie or video game; you dont get to drive and shoot
at the same time, and those shooting back are not as stupid.
I aint so sure stocking a bunker is such a good idea either. those
I've seen posting seem like they'd go postal after a few weeks.
So- has anyone written a more thot out response to societal collapse?
Not that it is much different apprach, but you might want to read the
http://www.taxrefusal.com/index-TEOTWAWKI.html
"Yet, there is no other known energy source, individual or collective,
that will be able to replace / supplant the energy now supplied to us
by conventional oil."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_power
"Fusion power commonly proposes the use of deuterium, an isotope of
hydrogen, as fuel and in many current designs also use lithium.
Assuming a fusion energy output equal to the current global output and
that this does not increase in the future, then the known current
lithium reserves would last 3000 years, lithium from sea water would
last 60 million years, and a more complicated fusion process using
only deuterium from sea water would have fuel for 150 billion years."
http://fusionpower.org/InformationFusion.htmlhttp://www.iter.org/http...
  (which has an excellent resource links page)
Now THAT is "change I can believe in". Yet the award for the most
http://wwwofe.er.doe.gov/Program_Offices/fes.htm
Gee, I wonder why Barry Soetoro, Hillary Clintonstein and John McBush
haven't addressed such a potentially huge, Earth-changing topic.....- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
Unfortunately, the development of "Fusion Power" is no more advanced
today than it was some 50 years ago.
Evidently you didn't bother to check out the links I posted. If you
had then you would have learned that lasers are used in one of the two
leading fusion technologies, and was even used to initiate the first
controlled deuterium/tritium fusion reaction. And, of course, we all
know that the laser was invented in 1960..... only 48 years ago. And
the continuing advancement of superconductors has been critical to the
refinement of magnetic containment technology. To me that sounds like
some significant advancements. It certainly isn't progressing as fast
as fission, but it's hardly stalled as you suggest.
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
In fact, France has given up on its massive investment towards that
goal.
Evidently you didn't bother to check out the links I posted. If you
had then you would have learned that the EU is heavily invested in
fusion technology. Considering the fact that 80% of the electricity in
France comes from fission reactors, I don't think they are turning
their backs to the prospect of fusion. Nor to the obvious economic
benefits of possibly being one of the first countries to have and
develop a practical fusion technology.
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
While this is not the forum to address such matters,
This topic is very relevant to this forum, since some of the most
likely global disaster scenarios are centered around energy (or,
rather, the lack thereof). And the best way to survive a disaster is
to prevent the disaster before it happens.
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
"Thermodynamics"
enters the equation. One that we have not yet solved.
Evidently you didn't bother to check out the links I posted. If you
had then you would have learned that the two major sticking points are
power amplification and plasma confinement. Once those are solved, say
goodbye to Exxon, Chevron and Saudi Arabia. And war. And famine. And
overpopulation. And global warming. And......
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
However, given sufficient time, it is entirely possible that future
day scientists will make "Fusion Power" possible.
Or maybe the problem will be solved next year by a couple bicycle
mechanics from Akron!!!
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
With it, we won't
have to rely on ill advised attempts  to secure such as "Thorium" or
"Lithium" or "Deuterium" and a few other "iums" from the sea or
elsewheres.
...."ill advised"? And how did Thorium get into this conversation? I
thought I ditched her at the party.....
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
Readers wishing to be brought to date with regard to the current state
of "Fusion Power" need but access "Energyresources" via Yahoo groups.
Therein you shall find posts by some of the world's leading
scientists. Scientists who have been associated with "Fusion Power"
since the day it first made the news.
Evidently you didn't bother to check out the links I posted. If you
had would would have learned that fusion, and its potential, has been
publically known since well before WWII. Which would mean that these
"scientists" to which you refer are either heavily oxygenated nursing
home residents or net-surfing ghosts.
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
You also may wish to contact Lawrence B.Crowell, an American nuclear
physicist and frequent poster to that group, with respect to any
questions.
No thanks, I think I'll rely on the more objective opinions from the
consensus of the -living- and -practicing- scientific community.
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
Daniel J. Lavigne, Founder
International Humanity House
***********************************
http://www.taxrefusal.com
Perhaps you should limit your focus to tax evasion instead of dabbling
in topics that are beyond your sphere of influence.- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
I suggest that you read your reply, come to the conclusion that all
expectations of "success" with respect to the development of "Fusion
Power" are exactly as you state: "Expectations".

Indeed, you acknowledge the FACTUAL reality of my response, exposing
the FACTS that we are nowheres near understanding what must be done in
order to be able to RELY on "Fusion Power", when you state:

" Or maybe the problem will be solved next year by a couple bicycle
mechanics from Akron!!! "

With respect to your asertion that "dabble" in "Tax Evasion", such
defines you as either a fool, a coward or both; as the "Tax Refusal"
is a determined attempt, first launched on "Remeberance Day" (November
11, 1978), to force "Humanity" to make a decison with respect to the
toptal USE or DISMANTLING of al nuclear and other weapons of mass
murder.

Mr. Gilliland, there are far too many on the net who, enslaved to
their egos and false beliefs that they are "intelligent beings", are
determined to avoid having to actually "think" about the subject
matter.

A long term member of the "Energyresources" group (I joined when Jay
Hanson first started it. Tom Robertson is now our esteemed moderator.)
I am quite aware of all matters pertaining to the now unavoidable
collapse of our civilization due to the finite nature and depletion of
the fossil fuels we so direly depend upon to fuel our greed driven but
unattainable goal of "Sustainable growth".

Perhaps your desire to stroke your ego by attacking / mocking others
might cause you to investigate my offer of a $100,000.00 reward to the
first person who could _prove_ the existence of any combination of
"Alternative Power" that will permit us to continue as we were doing,
worlwide, on July 4th, 2001, before the accelerating rate of depletion
of fossil fuels (and our increasing dependence on such) leads us to
suffer all-out war, including the use of all nuclear and other weapons
of mass murder, followed by a Hobbesian "War Of All Against All".

However, please be aware that, due to my belief in the year 2000 that,
by September 2005 there would be no one so stupid and / or ignorant of
our precarious position and the reality that we are "screwed" beyond
belief and that there is "No Solution" to the crisis other than to
suffer the anticipated "Dieoff", that I used that date as the "Cutoff"
date after which I would no longer entertain or accept possible
"proofs" that there might be a solution to our lethal / fatal
quandary.

However, seeing that you choose to look down upon people and do so
with no factual reason to believe that you are "capable and
intelligent", I open that "OFFER" to you, solely "you".

Should you be able to develop an outline, in keeping with the laws of
"Thermodynamics", that suggests that, by a necessary reliance on
whatever combination of "Alternaive Energy sources", we may be able to
avoid wanting to / having to murder each other by the millions in
order that such as your political masters may have a chance of
surviving what such as "you" permitted them to develop, I shall pay
you that amount.

There is one catch, and solely one catch:

You must put up the money to pay for one-half the cost of having three
"Recognized Scientists" evaluate your purported claims. I shall put up
the other half and, if you are correct (An impossibility), I shall pay
you that reward, plus the one-half of the amount that you will have to
put up to have your claims supported and approved by individuals who
KNOW what they are doing (As opposed to the blather that you presently
offer).

With regard to your ignorance of the "Tax Refusal" and what its stated
goals are, you need but access http://www.taxrefusal.com . . . and
start reading . . . and "thinking".

Speaking of which:

The Tax Refusal is built on one argument:

That "The Rule Of Law" is based on the duty of all to
refuse to be party to murder.

Indeed it is my most serious claim that:

"All have a lawful duty to refuse to support their society if that
society is participating in plans and preparations that are
predicated on a will and capacity to be party to mass murder."

Ergo: The Tax Refusal can't be defeated.

It continues to grow and shall achieve its stated goal.

Thank you.

To a safer, saner and more caring world.

To Duty.

Daniel J. Lavigne, Founder
International Humanity House
http://www.taxrefusal.com
**************************************
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& then, the "Politics" category.
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Day Brown
2008-02-29 04:34:43 UTC
Permalink
The problem is not oil depletion, but the depletion of intellect and
reason which pushes us all to crisis. Topping the charts of 1776 was
the publication of Gibbon's "The Decline and Fall of the Roman
Empire", and anyone who has read it recognizes ideas and phrases that
were used by the Founding Farmers trying to frame the US
Constitution.

But how many politicians today have the attention span to deal with
this monumental work? Or- read the Lincoln Douglas debates, and
compare them to the soundbyte presentations now broadcast. Where is
there an audience of voters today capable of the attending to what
they had to say for hours?

The energy crisis is too complicated for soundbytes. And we see in
this thread how easily posters are driven to ad hominum because they
are unable to stick to the facts at hand. No, the American Malaise
Carter sensed has become more evident, and spread globally, with
childhood mental development damaged by dietary deficit and
contamination, which now, as adults, leaves us with leaders and
electorates lacking in the logic and self control to arrive at sound
policy and a way forward while we try to work this out.

But TEOTWAWKI is not what most expect; YMMV depending enormously on
where you are. Already there are the less profitable provinces,
notably in Africa, of the global empire that have been shed to savagry
and anarchy. The barbarians are still a long ways from the gates. the
smart money that has been getting out of the unstable economies has
been largely moving to the great power centers, and that will prolly
keep things going a while.

How long is moot given that this new age has such a much more rapid
flow of information, and therefore could have as well, a much more
rapid flow of panic. That 9 trillion US national debt mentioned so
often is held by those who want us to hang on so they can get
something other than nice lithographs of dead presidents out of it.

But if any significant number of those creditors try to cash out, the
whole thing will go down overnight. Global investors, bankers, &
bureaucrats have the same emotional makeup; which Greenspan referred
to with "irrational exhuberance" some years ago, which is- no longer a
problem.

The history is obscure, but one of the things we see in the ruins are
villas of the rich that were turned into forts. We also see how
aristocrats, aware of impending collapse funded religious retreats in
obscurity, with the infrastructure of a monestary turned into a
castle. Then too, there are the modest hovels of Slavs who moved into
the desolate no-mans lands that had been devastated by war and
anarchy.

That plan seems most common among the "survivalists" today, whose
weapons are far superior, but whose knowledge of how to live off the
land is so limited they will only starve more slowly.

Another point missed by the posters is the coal reserves of the USA.
Coal powered the US economy before oil, and could do that again.
There's no reason to go back to the stone age other than dementia.

For instance, wide track steam turbine trains with flat cars could be
robotically developed to stay in a freeway lane and haul the commuters
and their electric cars to and from urban hubs. Powered by coal. And
produce less air pollution than the total number of vehicles they
haul. All that is lacking is the *vision*, with everyone locked into
the gruop think of conservative or liberal non-solutions.

People would rather rant and get the emotional feedback from claims of
a higher moral ground.
Retief
2008-03-05 04:52:03 UTC
Permalink
On Thu, 28 Feb 2008 11:03:59 -0800, Frank Gilliland
Post by Frank Gilliland
Evidently you didn't bother to check out the links I posted. If you
had then you would have learned that lasers are used in one of the two
leading fusion technologies, and was even used to initiate the first
And you would like to tell us that those research groups have
successfully produced greater than break-even power, in a continuous
operation (as would be needed for power generation)? No, of course
they haven't, Francis...
Post by Frank Gilliland
controlled deuterium/tritium fusion reaction. And, of course, we all
Choosing D-T fusion is a _backtrack_, since the desirable solution is
D-D fusion. The D-T fusion reaction results in a spare neutron (I
explained this to you previously), which is then available to activate
the walls of the confinement chamber -- thus you have residual
radioactive contamination, which is the same complaint people have
about fission reactors.
Post by Frank Gilliland
Evidently you didn't bother to check out the links I posted. If you
had then you would have learned that the EU is heavily invested in
fusion technology. Considering the fact that 80% of the electricity in
France comes from fission reactors, I don't think they are turning
Yes Francis, consider that 80% of France's electricity comes from
FISSION reactors, and it does NOT come from FUSION reactors.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France

And also notice that France's energy consumption has not decreased
overall, nor eliminated the use of fossil fuels over the last 20 years
or so.

So, why hasn't France gone whole-hog for Fusion? Let's see what they
are currently involved in...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER

On November 21, 2006, the seven participants formally agreed to
fund the project.[1] The program is anticipated to last for 30
years - 10 for construction, and 20 of operation - and cost
approximately ?10 billion (US$14.6 billion), which would make it
one of the most expensive modern technoscientific megaprojects. It
will be based in Cadarache, France. It is technically ready to
start construction and the first plasma operation is expected in
2016.

So, in 10 years we'll finally have the facility built, and can BEGIN
EXPERIMENTS... And in an additional 20 more years we MIGHT have
learned something that will point to a viable fusion reactor... If
they actually succeed in 30 years, then the world might begin building
fusion plants -- we're talking a rather optimistic 50 years out,
Francis...

Note also that they are planning to run the rather "dirty" (and
technologically easier) D-T fusion reaction.
Post by Frank Gilliland
their backs to the prospect of fusion. Nor to the obvious economic
benefits of possibly being one of the first countries to have and
develop a practical fusion technology.
But Francis would seemingly suggest that the world turn its back on
fission technology, which has come a long way (check out modular
pebble bed reactors, for example -- sounds like a great place to use
up the material from those demilled nuclear warheads).
Post by Frank Gilliland
Evidently you didn't bother to check out the links I posted. If you
had then you would have learned that the two major sticking points are
power amplification and plasma confinement. Once those are solved, say
Bwahahahaha!... Those have been the "trivial problems" since the very
beginning, Francis. We _know_ that you can cause fusion, if you can
get enough heat and pressure -- as demonstrated on the Bikini Atoll.

"Gosh, now if I could only figure out how to get enough energy to
produce the needed 'squish' for nuclear fusion to initiate, and keep
the resulting plasma from torching my reactor chamber, I could
trivally solve fusion power"...
Post by Frank Gilliland
goodbye to Exxon, Chevron and Saudi Arabia. And war. And famine. And
How is fusion power going to eliminate famine and war?

But apparently fission power would not do the same?
Post by Frank Gilliland
overpopulation. And global warming. And......
Gosh, fusion power will cure global warming? Unless, of course, the
warming is not caused by man:

http://people.iarc.uaf.edu/~sakasofu/climate.php
Post by Frank Gilliland
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
However, given sufficient time, it is entirely possible that future
day scientists will make "Fusion Power" possible.
Or maybe the problem will be solved next year by a couple bicycle
mechanics from Akron!!!
Sure thing, Francis. Better go buy some spare palladium for your cold
fusion unit...

Retief
Frank Gilliland
2008-03-05 12:12:56 UTC
Permalink
Post by Retief
On Thu, 28 Feb 2008 11:03:59 -0800, Frank Gilliland
Post by Frank Gilliland
Evidently you didn't bother to check out the links I posted. If you
had then you would have learned that lasers are used in one of the two
leading fusion technologies, and was even used to initiate the first
And you would like to tell us that those research groups have
successfully produced greater than break-even power, in a continuous
operation (as would be needed for power generation)? No, of course
they haven't, Francis...
Post by Frank Gilliland
controlled deuterium/tritium fusion reaction. And, of course, we all
Choosing D-T fusion is a _backtrack_, since the desirable solution is
D-D fusion. The D-T fusion reaction results in a spare neutron (I
explained this to you previously), which is then available to activate
the walls of the confinement chamber -- thus you have residual
radioactive contamination.........
<snip>


You really need to give up this obsession with me, Charles. All these
issues have been addressed on the sites I referenced. Anyone can read
them if they want. Evidently you, like the tax evader, didn't bother.
Day Brown
2008-03-05 17:45:47 UTC
Permalink
It is curious that the spent nuclear fuel problem has not been solved
by shipping it to the Greenland or Antarctic ice caps. If those caps
melt, we'll have lotsa other problems to deal with more important than
a relatively local radioactive contamination problem; and if not, then
the stuff is out of harm's way until hell freezes over.

So, why havent they done this? the conventional debate takes up all
the media time. Media makes its money, as we see in the election
campaigns, by advertising, which includes political party, policy, and
action. Partisans make their money, ie get donations, not from
resolution, but continuance of the struggle. In this case nuclear
fission/fusion power.

We see the same thing in the Obama/Clinton race, which the corporate
media spins one way or the other to diminish the lead so as to
motivate the partisans to buy as much advertising as possible. That
sheeple have not figured this out is a testiment to just how fucking
stupid and gullible they are.

http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/February2008/29/c6646.html
shows how their profits in 2007 from wind power rose by 36%. And the
higher the oil prices rise, the higher the profit, and the faster the
amortized cost of wind turbines can be paid off with greater returns
to the investors. Who are the poeple who are paying attention to both
the political realities and the engineering.

As the global & national economy looks dicey, communities are finding
wind power an increasingly attractive option; if the national grid
went down, wind wont give them power all the time, but just having
some sometimes will make an enormous difference in the local
lifestyles. Last year, a Danish outfit announced a new windpower
manufacturing plant for Little Rock.
http://www.awea.org/newsroom/releases/AWEA_Quarterly_Market_Report_080807.html
These people are not waiting for solutions in CO2, Nuclear waste, or
new oil sources to be found. The blades to be made in Little Rock can
be, if need be, shipped by barge up the Arkansas to OK, KS, & NB,
making good use of that other thing the Great Plains have always had a
lot of . Wind.

You'd think the Greens would be all over this, but they'd rather rant
about oil, coal, CO2, radioactivity, et al, then promote actual
solutions for communities to free themselves from what the Greens tell
us is a corrupt national government and power oligarchy. They dont
want the solution, they want the partisan support for their rants.
They want the votes.

This whole windpower movement is being brought here by *capitalist
pigs*. Last spring, the amortized cost of windpower ran about $0.04/
kwhr. Look at your electric bill to see what your rate is for an idea
of how much money is to be made in windpower. If it were not for
government subsidy, no nukes would be built at all. The investors have
figured out that while the wind may not be blowing at one location, it
is *always* blowing someplace, and when the network gets spread across
the Great Plains, it will *always* be making power to put on the
national grid that already runs across it.

The only question now is whether the manufacture of blades and
turbines can come online fast enuf to reduce the net cost of energy in
the Nation enough to keep the whole economy going. Or- whether the
proverbial SHTF beforehand, and we see the dissolution of the Untied
States of Denial which would leave foreign investors in the US dollar
and federal reserve notes- holding the bag. Taken by Yankees, yet
again.

This habit of the mass corporate media to spin campaigns and events to
maximize profits by motivating partisans to buy ads results in a
nation that cannot ever truly reach a consensus on what needs to be
done. Some states and communities seem to sense this, and are going
ahead with their own projects, and of them, some will do it right.
Which was an idea of the Founding Farmers.

Arkansas for instance, now has its own plant to manufacture windpower.
It also has abundant hydropower in the Ozark and Ouchita dams, coal
mines, and now the Fayetteville shale gas field in production. It has
enuf energy to run its own economy with some left over for export. It
also has a positive import/export relationship with China. The Chinese
eat a lot of AR delta rice. The one thing it does not need, which if
the economy worsens, is its share of the National debt and most of the
cost of social security. The old folks moved to Florida. That's
Florida's problem.

This kind of an issue could take off because there's no national media
money in it. The local media get their money from the sales of new
cars, furniture, real estate, and resturanats. All of which would be
broke in an economic crisis. Leaving local people to rely on swap
sheets and the internet. Unfiltered by spin meisters with
transnational corporate agendas.
Retief
2008-03-06 04:25:11 UTC
Permalink
On Wed, 5 Mar 2008 09:45:47 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
It is curious that the spent nuclear fuel problem has not been solved
by shipping it to the Greenland or Antarctic ice caps. If those caps
Why? Pebble bed reactors eliminate that issue.

But Francis avoids these systems, because they are fission reactors.

Francis is an agent provacatuer, and wants to encourage the public to
follow an undesirable route (fusion reactors will not be available on
the short term scale -- fission reactors are available _now_).

Retief
Frank Gilliland
2008-03-06 13:21:19 UTC
Permalink
Post by Retief
On Wed, 5 Mar 2008 09:45:47 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
It is curious that the spent nuclear fuel problem has not been solved
by shipping it to the Greenland or Antarctic ice caps. If those caps
Why? Pebble bed reactors eliminate that issue.
But Francis avoids these systems, because they are fission reactors.
Francis is an agent provacatuer, and wants to encourage the public to
follow an undesirable route (fusion reactors will not be available on
the short term scale -- fission reactors are available _now_).
In 1827 the element Aluminum was finally isolated as a metal. For more
than 50 years it was little more than a curiosity because of the cost
involved in producing it in any usable quantity. Everyone recognized
the potential of the metal, and many top scientists did their best to
solve the problem (unfortunately, some were probably persuaded to quit
by people like Charles who said, "Aluminum will not be available on
the short term scale -- steel is available _now_"). But in 1886 a
student at Oberlin College figured out how to produce it cheaply with
electricity and the rest is history.

In 1903, Wilbur and Orville Wright dissed the critics who proclaimed
that "heavier-than-air flight will not be available on the short term
scale -- railroads are available _now_." Good thing, too, since a band
called 'Jefferson Steam Locomotive' just wouldn't grab much attention.

In the 1800's Jules Verne postulated in fiction that man would someday
travel through space and land on the moon. It wasn't until after WWII
that rockets were used to first reach outer space, and eventually
launch the first satellite, put a man on the moon, and build no less
than three space stations. Space is now littered with both military
and commercial satellites. Later this year Richard Branson intends to
unveil the first commercial vehicle for space flight. And all because
the governments of the US and USSR decided to have a pissing match and
pay the huge initial investment needed to develop the technology for
space exploration.

Prior to the discovery of nuclear fission in 1939, the mere thought of
having the capability to produce more than a few milligrams of U235 or
P239 was unthinkable. Yet by 1943 the firt atomic pile was built, and
by 1945 the "unthinkable" was dropped on Japan. An enormous initial
investment was needed to develop technology to manufacture fissionable
materials. Once that initial expense had been paid, then, and only
then, did fission power become economically viable (because it's not
just a matter of 'power in vs power out' but of 'money in vs money
out'). Unfortunately, fission creates a large amount of nuclear waste
which takes a large slice of the pie, not to mention creates an
environmental hazard that lasts for thousands of years. That's why we
haven't built any new fission plants in recent history.

The next step in our technological evolution is fusion. Like aluminum
and the airplane, we can clearly recognize its potential long before
its practical application. Like nuclear fission and space flight, it
will require a huge initial investment to develop the technology. It
-WILL- happen, assuming we don't destroy ourselves first. The only
question is how soon. Do we need to wait until the Great Energy War?
Or do we have the ability to silence the naysayers like Charles who
preach procrastination as an alternative to a better future? Kennedy
pushed to put a man on the moon within a decade; if we were to put as
much energy into fusion as we did the space program, I have no doubt
that fusion research would advance just as quickly.


With that being said, Charles Scripter (aka, "Retief") now joins Myal,
Rifleman, and other hate-mongers, racists and assorted blow-hards in
my killfile.

<plonk>
Day Brown
2008-03-06 17:30:03 UTC
Permalink
The problem with Fusion is whether it can come online before we run
out of oil and the whole global economy collapses. So far, fusion does
not look like it will.

This has already drawn investment money into windpower, and with new
aeronautics software, resulted in new generations of wind towers that
make more power across a wider rage of wind velocities and do it at a
lower cost. I see that extreme storm conditions have resulted in
crashed towers; but it is the failure *rate* that matters to insurers,
who feel like they know what they are in for with wind, but not with
nukes and fusion.

*NOBODY* will accept the risk of litigation with Fission or Fusion.
You can explain it all here or anywhere with power points or whatever
as long as you like, but the technology is just too fucking complex
for the insurance industry to want to deal with. i keep saying, the
problem with these forms of power generation is political, not
scientific. You pack that much power generation at a single location,
and what you have is a very appealing rich target in the war on
terror. Neither Nukes or Fusion is going anywhere until the problem of
terrorism has been dealt with.

Windpower is a whole different trip. Soon as the ragheads show up in
Nebraska to scope out the opportunities, they'll be recognized as
strangers who dont belong there by the local farmers. Who know who
owns what truck they are driving every time they pass on country
roads. As long as lawyers make so much money out of lawsuits,
windpower out in the boonies, away from dense population zones, will
be attractive to investors.

Then too, it takes a big federal government with deep pockets to fund
a nuke. And since they do that, they get to dictate to you what the
price is. Windpower can be funded by state and even local governments,
and therefore operates within the limits of free market capitalism.
Frank Gilliland
2008-03-06 19:12:50 UTC
Permalink
On Thu, 6 Mar 2008 09:30:03 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
The problem with Fusion is whether it can come online before we run
out of oil and the whole global economy collapses. So far, fusion does
not look like it will.
Fusion doesn't have a mind of its own. It doesn't decide how soon it
will be developed -- we do. The only problem with fusion is that most
people don't realize that it's even possible; and of the few who do,
most have resigned themselves to the faulty assumption that the time
of fusion power is left to the powers that be. Well, it is -WE- that
are the "powers that be". If -WE- want it bad enough it will happen.
Clearly, we don't want it bad enough..... yet. We will when the fossil
fuels run out. As for me, I want it yesterday.
Post by Day Brown
This has already drawn investment money into windpower, and with new
aeronautics software, resulted in new generations of wind towers that
make more power across a wider rage of wind velocities and do it at a
lower cost. I see that extreme storm conditions have resulted in
crashed towers; but it is the failure *rate* that matters to insurers,
who feel like they know what they are in for with wind, but not with
nukes and fusion.
Windpower, solar, hydro, bio-fuels and even fission are just stop-gap
measures to extend the supply of fossil fuels. They cannot to replace
them. There is absolutely no possible way that these alternative
energy sources can support a world population of 7 billion people, a
number that will double or even triple when crunch-time comes. If that
time comes and we have no fusion then we are screwed. One solution is
to kill off 90-98% of the world's population, institute a worldwide
population control law, enforce it under penalty of death, and the
majority of those who remain will be forced to live more basic than
the Amish while manufacturing luxuries for the elite. That, BTW, is
only one possibility for a non-fusion future, but very possibly the
most optimistic.
Post by Day Brown
*NOBODY* will accept the risk of litigation with Fission or Fusion.
You can explain it all here or anywhere with power points or whatever
as long as you like, but the technology is just too fucking complex
for the insurance industry to want to deal with. i keep saying, the
problem with these forms of power generation is political, not
scientific. You pack that much power generation at a single location,
and what you have is a very appealing rich target in the war on
terror. Neither Nukes or Fusion is going anywhere until the problem of
terrorism has been dealt with.
Take a second look at the 9/11 targets: the World Trade Center, the
Pentagon and the White House. They didn't attack fission reactors, or
windmills, or hydroelectric dams, or even any corn fields.....
Post by Day Brown
Windpower is a whole different trip. Soon as the ragheads show up in
Nebraska to scope out the opportunities, they'll be recognized as
strangers who dont belong there by the local farmers. Who know who
owns what truck they are driving every time they pass on country
roads. As long as lawyers make so much money out of lawsuits,
windpower out in the boonies, away from dense population zones, will
be attractive to investors.
That makes no sense at all. Terrorists exist because we created them.
We (the US) has a history of meddling in other countries and cultures
for the economic benefits of our big corporations. By now it should be
crystal clear that we attacked Iraq for the oil. Our bases in Saudi
Arabia are to protect oil. Our treaties with totalitarian governments
in the middle East are moral compromises so we can buy their oil. In
fact, we created the current hatred of the US in Iran by supporting
the Shaw and all his human rights abuses when he was in power, just
like we supported Saddam and his quest for chemical and biological
weapons (as well as his attempted genocide) when he was at war with
Iran. We trained bin Laden to be a terrorist against the Soviets, and
when we broke our promises he used that training against us. These
terrorists don't hate our corn farmers, or our windmill builders, or
our hydro-engineers..... they hate the government and the big oil
corporations that control them. That's why they flew planes into the
WTC and DC, and not 3-Mile Island or some cranberry bog. The fact is
that we created modern terrorism because of our need for oil. And the
best way to solve the problem is to eliminate our need for oil, shut
down the big oil corporations, and quit meddling in the affairs of
other countries and cultures.
Post by Day Brown
Then too, it takes a big federal government with deep pockets to fund
a nuke. And since they do that, they get to dictate to you what the
price is.
No, they don't. As soon as fusion power is achieved, everybody and
their dog will be working to replicate and improve the technology.
That's not speculation -- it's history. It's what has happened after
every leap of technology, including the bomb.
Post by Day Brown
Windpower can be funded by state and even local governments,
and therefore operates within the limits of free market capitalism.
If we could harness all the wind created by political rhetoric and
corporate propaganda then we wouldn't need fusion. But since that's
never going to happen.....
Terryc
2008-03-06 22:22:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by Frank Gilliland
Windpower, solar, hydro, bio-fuels and even fission are just stop-gap
measures to extend the supply of fossil fuels. They cannot to replace
them. There is absolutely no possible way that these alternative
energy sources can support a world population of 7 billion people,
Where there is a will, there is a way. I'm very sure that the majority
of the worlds population could survive with hydro, wind, solar and
bio-fuels supporting their way of life as there electrical demands are
well within their generation capacity.

The use of solar thermal in heavy industrial needs will be very
interesting as well as the earths capacity to still run a few coal fired
power stations.

The only populations in danger are the massive energy consumers.
Day Brown
2008-03-06 22:33:11 UTC
Permalink
Post by Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
Then too, it takes a big federal government with deep pockets to fund
a nuke. And since they do that, they get to dictate to you what the
price is.
No, they don't. As soon as fusion power is achieved, everybody and
their dog will be working to replicate and improve the technology.
That's not speculation -- it's history. It's what has happened after
every leap of technology, including the bomb.>
Post by Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
Windpower can be funded by state and even local governments,
and therefore operates within the limits of free market capitalism.
If we could harness all the wind created by political rhetoric and
corporate propaganda then we wouldn't need fusion. But since that's
never going to happen..... >
Its not upta us. Dont argue with me, take it up with the insurance
companies, bureaucrats, politicians, and investors. If anyone does
invent a way to produce Fusion power, they will have *patents* on the
process, which lawyers associated with the above will litigate about.
There is no fast track.

We are already teetering on Hubbard's Peak Oil, and while the rise has
followed a smooth bell curve, the decline in global oil production
will be precipitious. Again, because of political factors. Greed being
what it is, the higher the price the more men will attempt violent
methods, as you note, to secure a supply. And we see how this has
damaged the production infrastructure. Which will lower the supply and
drive the price higher. Which will increase the greed, and therefore
the violence, and therefore further infrastrcture damage.

There no longer is the time needed to bring fusion power online. Wind
is getting the investment because people think they understand the
technology. And if there is a global economic crisis, the investments
in windpower can be maintained by local personnel with local
resources. They wont wont farm tractor mechanics fooling with a fusion
power plant.

I sympathize with your passion; I looked forward to Fusion power 20
years ago. But now, given the global political and economic situation,
there no longer is the time to go with an untested technology.
Frank Gilliland
2008-03-07 00:11:20 UTC
Permalink
On Thu, 6 Mar 2008 14:33:11 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Frank Gilliland
Post by Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
Then too, it takes a big federal government with deep pockets to fund
a nuke. And since they do that, they get to dictate to you what the
price is.
No, they don't. As soon as fusion power is achieved, everybody and
their dog will be working to replicate and improve the technology.
That's not speculation -- it's history. It's what has happened after
every leap of technology, including the bomb.>
Post by Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
Windpower can be funded by state and even local governments,
and therefore operates within the limits of free market capitalism.
If we could harness all the wind created by political rhetoric and
corporate propaganda then we wouldn't need fusion. But since that's
never going to happen..... >
Its not upta us. Dont argue with me, take it up with the insurance
companies, bureaucrats, politicians, and investors. If anyone does
invent a way to produce Fusion power, they will have *patents* on the
process, which lawyers associated with the above will litigate about.
There is no fast track.
Are you actually suggesting that we should abandon the whole concept
(and any other advance in technological development) because there
will be lawsuits?
Post by Frank Gilliland
We are already teetering on Hubbard's Peak Oil,
Which is a myth. Not the fact that we will eventually run out of
fossil fuels. We will. But the timeline proposed by these "scientists"
is nothing but fear-mongering intended to drive up the price of oil.
The fact is that, if current consumption levels remain constant, there
is enough coal to last 150-300 years and enough natural gas to last
200+ years. Not to mention the tar sands which comprise about 2/3 of
the world's petroleum deposits and haven't even been touched. We also
have what's left of the oil, AS WELL AS all the alternative sources
both old and new. Yet not one politician, not even the self-proclaimed
energy miser Senator Maria Cantwell, has proposed a bill to bring the
national speed limit back down to 55mph; a law that, if enforced,
would reduce our need for imported oil by about 17%. They don't
because petroleum supply isn't the problem. At least not in the short
term. The problem with petro is the location of the major oil fields.
Post by Frank Gilliland
and while the rise has
followed a smooth bell curve, the decline in global oil production
will be precipitious. Again, because of political factors. Greed being
what it is, the higher the price the more men will attempt violent
methods, as you note, to secure a supply. And we see how this has
damaged the production infrastructure. Which will lower the supply and
drive the price higher. Which will increase the greed, and therefore
the violence, and therefore further infrastrcture damage.
There no longer is the time needed to bring fusion power online.
How long does it take? How can people make such absolute statements
about how long it will take to do something that hasn't been done yet?
How do you know that a breakthrough won't happen in the next few days?
Was there an earlier civilization that developed fusion and left a
note saying how long it takes but without explaining the technology?

For ANYONE to proclaim that there isn't enough time is absolutely
absurd.
Post by Frank Gilliland
Wind
is getting the investment because people think they understand the
technology. And if there is a global economic crisis, the investments
in windpower can be maintained by local personnel with local
resources. They wont wont farm tractor mechanics fooling with a fusion
power plant.
Since the technology hasn't been developed yet, aren't you putting the
cart before the horse?
Post by Frank Gilliland
I sympathize with your passion; I looked forward to Fusion power 20
years ago. But now, given the global political and economic situation,
there no longer is the time to go with an untested technology.
I don't like what's waiting at the next intersection any more than
anyone else. But like everything else it will be temporary. If you
want to play the safety card that's up to you. But I would appreciate
it if you didn't diss the very real efforts by those of us who choose
to look a little further into the future than you.
Terryc
2008-03-07 01:55:12 UTC
Permalink
Post by Frank Gilliland
Are you actually suggesting that we should abandon the whole concept
(and any other advance in technological development) because there
will be lawsuits?
Yawn. It represents a way of life that I do not care to endorse and
prefer not to live.

OTOH, show me a credible threat from aliens from out space with
monstrous laser weapons and I'll gladly add 1% of my income to a couple
of projects to develop it.

Given that we are having trouble finding anything but bug fossils
anywhere other than earth, I think my money is safe.
Post by Frank Gilliland
Post by Day Brown
We are already teetering on Hubbard's Peak Oil,
Which is a myth. Not the fact that we will eventually run out of
fossil fuels. We will. But the timeline proposed by these "scientists"
is nothing but fear-mongering intended to drive up the price of oil.
The fact is that, if current consumption levels remain constant, there
is enough coal to last 150-300 years and enough natural gas to last
200+ years.
Lol, coal and natural gas aint oils.

Frank, you are a total moron. no wonder the yank snipers love targetting
you. "current consumption levels remain constant" So been sterilised yet?
Post by Frank Gilliland
Not to mention the tar sands which comprise about 2/3 of
the world's petroleum deposits and haven't even been touched.
Which is going to cost more energy to extract and process than will ever
be recovered from the finished product.
Day Brown
2008-03-07 05:03:27 UTC
Permalink
What I think does not matter. I am simply reporting where investors
are willling to put their *money*. You may not think we are Hubbard's
Peak, but enuf of them do, and *that* is driving the price up. Its
also driving up the violence being used to attempt to control some of
the oil fields we know of. Oil is obviously a political tool and
economic weapon, and at this point, there's not been enuf progress in
either nukes or fusion to attract the funding in time to contol the
spiraling prices.

The USA has already powered an advanced economy on coal, and may yet
do so again. And again, investors understand the technology, so that
is driving investment in that direction. Its not upta me. It may well
be that people and their governments are stupid not to have invested
enuf in fusion technology, but there's lotsa evidence that they are
fucking stupid, and we are where we are.

Its commodities- gold, grain, oil, metals that have had such
significant runups that there is a market mentality to go with what
investors think they understand. The perceived payoff in either nukes
or fusion is just too far down the line right now with global stock
markets all in decline. Housing prices may be off, but last year good
farmland produced 155 bu/acre. And right now, corn is going for 5.67$
so they grossed 878$/acre on it.

They are crunching the numbers now trying to figure out how to grow as
much next year on as little fuel and petrochemicals as possible, and
thinking of a payback in 8 months. Nobody is thinking 5, much less 10,
years down the pike. Ideas, in fusion or anything else, are a dime a
dozen, and will stay at that price cause it'll take that long for the
lawyers to work out who owns the patents. Meanwhile, the wind is still
free, and whether turbines are turned by wind or coal, the technology
has been out there since the patents have expired and investors can
put up the money without hiring legions of lawyers to defend profits.

In a modern technologically advanced culture where the people listen
to scientists and engineers- fusion would be online already. But the
churches are still full, and they argue about Crationism.
Frank Gilliland
2008-03-07 14:16:38 UTC
Permalink
On Thu, 6 Mar 2008 21:03:27 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
What I think does not matter. I am simply reporting where investors
are willling to put their *money*.
Therein lies our differences. Your motivation is money. Mine isn't.
Day Brown
2008-03-07 15:20:31 UTC
Permalink
Post by Frank Gilliland
On Thu, 6 Mar 2008 21:03:27 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
What I think does not matter. I am simply reporting where investors
are willling to put their *money*.
Therein lies our differences. Your motivation is money. Mine isn't.
No, its not my money Frank. I'm telling you what investors are doing
with *their* money. The money I have is now being invested in an herb
garden to provide witches with herbal birth control and abortion. If
the current stupidity of Christian control over the government
continues, there will be good money in it. If the global economy tanks
because of the limited oil production, then people will be thrown back
on local resources, and again, I will be in a good trading position.

The national and global economy has been so mismanaged, as we can see
with a 9 trillion dollar debt, that there no longer is the research
money to properly fund fusion research and bring it online before the
ongoing oil problem causes global financial panic.

The Wall Street Journal says that windpower costs about 1000$/kw. ie,
a buck a watt. Solar panels have been running at 5$/watt. Anyway,
their website: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120476274314215009.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
shows where the money is going. GE sells 1.5 to 3.5 megawatt units at
a somewhat lower price. There are ongoing design improvements, but
the incrementalism gives investors the confidence they know what they
are buying. They dont really understand nukes or fusion, so they think
its a pig in a poke and dont buy in.

If you can educate investors to get them to fund fusion and it works
out, they'll all get rich. But none of those investors read the
postings here. I get by on about 500 kwhr/month. At about $0.10 kwhr.
If I had a thousand, I can see investing in a 1kw wind turbine. I'm up
on an Ozark ridge, where the only thing between me and the wind from
the Yukon is barb wire. If the wind blew only 10% of the time, that'd
translate into 72 kwhrs, or $7.20 worth of electricity. Bankers think
they understand windpower. So, they'll give loans at 8%, or $6.66$
interest cost/month with the remaining production eating away at the
principle.

The average wind maps are out there, homeowners and bankers can access
the costs and figure it out, and everyone sees how they can make
money. That data is not available with nukes and fusion. Maybe it
should be, but its not upta me.
Frank Gilliland
2008-03-07 17:21:42 UTC
Permalink
On Fri, 7 Mar 2008 07:20:31 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
Post by Frank Gilliland
On Thu, 6 Mar 2008 21:03:27 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
What I think does not matter. I am simply reporting where investors
are willling to put their *money*.
Therein lies our differences. Your motivation is money. Mine isn't.
No, its not my money Frank. I'm telling you what investors are doing
with *their* money. The money I have is now being invested in an herb
garden to provide witches with herbal birth control and abortion. If
the current stupidity of Christian control over the government
continues, there will be good money in it. If the global economy tanks
because of the limited oil production, then people will be thrown back
on local resources, and again, I will be in a good trading position.
Hmmm..... I can see that you've thought this out carefully..... I'm
sure the market for wiccan supplies will certainly be in high demand
after an economic crash. Just like back in the early 1930's, a time
when the demand for birth control was huge..... NOT. Do you really
think that the ruralites (who are predominately Christian) are going
to admonish their faith and resort to witchcraft? I don't. Maybe in
the Ozarks, where folks gleefully adopt any religion that tolerates
incest. But not in the rest of the country.

And one other point: it's not the Christians that are screwing up the
government. If you want to know who is (or will be) responsible then
just follow the money (hint: oil and drugs).
Post by Day Brown
The national and global economy has been so mismanaged, as we can see
with a 9 trillion dollar debt, that there no longer is the research
money to properly fund fusion research and bring it online before the
ongoing oil problem causes global financial panic.
Yeah, that's a tough one. It took Bill Clinton seven years to turn a
massive deficit into a surplus. And if the Reponzicans had any brains
they would have continued his economic policy and paid off most of the
national debt by now. I seriously doubt that all the faces of Hillary
can even come close to that. John McBush will just continue building
the debt. And the Kenyan/Indonesian/American/Islamic/Atheist/Christian
candidate is so obsessed with his personal achievements that he won't
be paying attention to anything that's important to the rest of us. It
will take a bona-fide economist to pull the rabbit out of Uncle Sam's
hat. Lou Dobbs might run, but it's far too late for him to get enough
support to win. And any independent who hasn't already been vetted by
the media will never win.

So I guess we're fucked.
Frank Gilliland
2008-03-07 18:13:01 UTC
Permalink
On Fri, 07 Mar 2008 09:21:42 -0800, Frank Gilliland
<wï***@NOSPAMïcehouse.net> wrote in
<***@4ax.com>:

<snip>
Post by Frank Gilliland
So I guess we're fucked.
I should revise that: the US is fucked, and Bernanke just took another
step in the wrong direction. I can't believe that he keeps tossing out
all that cash and cutting interest rates when the dollar is so low. It
makes no sense at all -- unless his intent is to crash the system. If
it is then he's doing a great job!
Day Brown
2008-03-07 21:26:11 UTC
Permalink
I mite revise and extend my comments as well. The leaders who have
made the mess we are in *claim* to be Christian. And the Christians
have been stupid enuf to believe them. If we do indeed see economic
crisis, then deservedly or not, since it has been so widely claimed
that the United States is a Christian nation, then Christianity will
take the hit.

Wallace, in his anthropology classic, "Culture and Personality" noted
that when a society is on the skids, and people's coping skills dont
work so well anymore, they engage in "magical thinking". Thus the rise
in books and witch craft paraphanalia, tarot, runes, astrology, et al.
You also see it in the huge popularity of thinly hidden witchcraft
films like the Harry Potter series.


Where you do not see it, and this is most important, is in monumental
architecture. "wiccans" meet in parks, national forest, or other such
reserves on private land. Or in private homes. Its going on under your
radar Frank. And if, as you say, we are fucked, then these native
spirituality cults will take off. There is nothing any of us can do,
this is just a heads up.

Well, when you realize how stupid and gullible everyone is, you also
see that the condition is terminal, and all you can do is profit from
it. The Ozarks have been changed because of the perception that the
nation is headed for hell in a basket. Flatlanders have been moving
in. The sons of the moonshiners went into meth, and then moved to the
city where the welfare benefits were better for their women and they
could steal and do drugs without being recognized.

Out here, you cant have a dozen drug customers come by in a day
without the neighbors figuring out something fishy is going on. None
of us have that many friends. So the meth dealers have moved to the
city, and their places have been bought by retired military and civil
service, and younger people who want a clean environment with good
schools to raise their kids in.

Whereas before the "survivalists" have been cammy jammy bunker boys,
now its Gulf War I vets who really know something of weapons and
tactics, and see how easy it is to defend the whole region, not just
your own personal 40 acres. The land is so steep there are not that
many ways in. It is also too steep for agribusiness, and there's never
been industrial pollution either. That has something to do with why
the world record Brown trout came out of the Little Red just 15 miles
from me. (52 lb) The area draws global elite fly fishermen who the
Army Core of engineers do not want to see pissed off, so they
assiduously regulate the watersheds. You can not only swim in the
Little Red, you can drink it.

The kind of stupid hillbillies you think lived here moved to the
cities long ago. Now its smart people whose land investments are still
rising in values. California, with all the smart people had a 2
billion dollar state deficit last year. Arkansas finished with a 919
million dollar surplus.

Every time you turn around, things are not quite what you thot.
Frank Gilliland
2008-03-07 23:03:37 UTC
Permalink
On Fri, 7 Mar 2008 13:26:11 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
I mite revise and extend my comments as well. The leaders who have
made the mess we are in *claim* to be Christian. And the Christians
have been stupid enuf to believe them. If we do indeed see economic
crisis, then deservedly or not, since it has been so widely claimed
that the United States is a Christian nation, then Christianity will
take the hit.
I'll agree with all that and Toto too.
Post by Day Brown
Wallace, in his anthropology classic, "Culture and Personality" noted
that when a society is on the skids, and people's coping skills dont
work so well anymore, they engage in "magical thinking". Thus the rise
in books and witch craft paraphanalia, tarot, runes, astrology, et al.
You also see it in the huge popularity of thinly hidden witchcraft
films like the Harry Potter series.
Maybe you missed the part in the movie where Charlie Heston parts the
Red Sea. Or that other movie where some dead guy wakes up three days
later and floats into the sky.
Post by Day Brown
Where you do not see it, and this is most important, is in monumental
architecture. "wiccans" meet in parks, national forest, or other such
reserves on private land. Or in private homes. Its going on under your
radar Frank.
No, it isn't "under my radar". The fact is that occult practices and
beliefs have been alive and well for about as long as the human race.
What -you- might not be realizing is that witchcraft doesn't deliver
on its promises. Neither does Christianity, but at least mainstream
religion uses better excuses for its shortcomings.
Post by Day Brown
And if, as you say, we are fucked, then these native
spirituality cults will take off. There is nothing any of us can do,
this is just a heads up.
Yeah..... I think I'll follow history's lessons on this one.
Post by Day Brown
Well, when you realize how stupid and gullible everyone is, you also
see that the condition is terminal, and all you can do is profit from
it.
Glad to see that opportunism will be alive and well after the more
successful opportunists have made life miserable.
Post by Day Brown
The Ozarks have been changed because of the perception that the
nation is headed for hell in a basket. Flatlanders have been moving
in. The sons of the moonshiners went into meth, and then moved to the
city where the welfare benefits were better for their women and they
could steal and do drugs without being recognized.
Out here, you cant have a dozen drug customers come by in a day
without the neighbors figuring out something fishy is going on. None
of us have that many friends. So the meth dealers have moved to the
city, and their places have been bought by retired military and civil
service, and younger people who want a clean environment with good
schools to raise their kids in.
Whereas before the "survivalists" have been cammy jammy bunker boys,
now its Gulf War I vets who really know something of weapons and
tactics, and see how easy it is to defend the whole region, not just
your own personal 40 acres. The land is so steep there are not that
many ways in. It is also too steep for agribusiness, and there's never
been industrial pollution either. That has something to do with why
the world record Brown trout came out of the Little Red just 15 miles
from me. (52 lb) The area draws global elite fly fishermen who the
Army Core of engineers do not want to see pissed off, so they
assiduously regulate the watersheds. You can not only swim in the
Little Red, you can drink it.
The kind of stupid hillbillies you think lived here moved to the
cities long ago. Now its smart people whose land investments are still
rising in values. California, with all the smart people had a 2
billion dollar state deficit last year. Arkansas finished with a 919
million dollar surplus.
Every time you turn around, things are not quite what you thot.
You don't get it.

Those "stupid hillbillies" weren't "stupid hillbillies" when they
settled the land. They became that way as a product -of- the land. The
isolation, the agriculture, the environment..... it changes people.
All these "new hillbillies" are bringing their nesteggs with them and
make the place more civilized. But what will happen after an economic
collapse? All that money suddenly stops rolling in -- not that it will
be worth anything anyway, but the area will once again be economically
isolated just like it was before. And socially isolated because they
are bound and determined to defend it. Your vehicles will work until
you run out of gas (or ethanol, which will happen because you'll have
to use that land to grow food). Your windmills will work until the
bearings wear out, or the copper corrodes, or the batteries won't take
a charge, or the electronics fail, or the blades break, or the iron
rusts, etc. Those are repair parts that depend on industries which the
area doesn't have and can't support. After the windmills are gone, the
only thing you can fall back on is agriculture, and not much of that.
So no matter what you do to stay on top of the hill, in the end you're
back to square one -- "stupid hillbillies". .....oh, and did I forget
to mention the internal feuding?

BTW, no rational investor would dump money into a windmill company
just because they will work after a disaster. They are investing in
them because "stupid hillbillies" are buying them. They are also
investing in the companies that make the repair parts. GM perfected
this marketing gimmick decades ago -- and look where they are now.
Day Brown
2008-03-08 04:36:55 UTC
Permalink
The economic settings for the Ozarks, the Nation, and the global
market are variable and the data ambiguous.

The clans we think of in the hill country have shrunk dramatically
because the women no longer have lotsa kids. Granted that lotsa
flatlanders move in who are utterly dependent on the government check
and utterly clueless on how to live off the land. but that's pretty
common everywhere but the Amish, and whether they'll be able to defend
themselves with their pacificism is doubtful. There mite be a future
in offering them security services.

Then too, there's the question of whether the 100,000 who live back in
the boonies can defend themselves, even with the advantages of
terrain, from hordes of desperate urban flatlanders. That kinda
depends on whether any economic crisis unfolds over night, or over
time. Then too, the Southern Ozarks have unusual assets. Before fruit
was shipped from Mexico and CA, there usta be a large orchard economy
here, and for some reason, the tractors used were fuel by propane. I
have one, a Farmall M, from about 1955. The engine is shot, but the
propane tank, regulator, and carb are all fine, and could be fitted
out on a wide range of engines.

And the reason that is important is the Fayetteville shale deposit,
which has resulted in gas wells and drilling rigs all over. The
deposit already provides 1% of the total US market. From a region that
if isolated, could run its own economy, and keep its own vehicles
fueled. I. and lotsa other folks, already have solar panels. Some
already have windpower. Its often cheaper to install than run the
power lines long distances over steep terrain. Like lotsa other folks,
I also have car batteries in the house. Ice storms are common up here,
and that knocks the power out.

There's also the mines up at Lead Hill and Silver hill to provide lead
for batteries and babbit to make bearings. And bullets. Like others
with orchards and gardens, I've got 50 lb of the flowers of sulphur.
With the other available minerals, that's enuf for hundreds of pounds
of explosive.

The imponderable is whether the people here can get more organized.
History shows however, that regions that have lotsa small farms are
the best at organizing "well regulated militias". Its what the US beat
the Brits with. Its also what the Fins used to stop the Soviet army.
While the farms here are now pretty much in grass fed beef, there's
still lotsa older other farming equipment to diversify into whatever
the local market wants. I already put in "Arkansas Black" apple trees
cause they are such good keepers.

But there's no way to tell whether all this will do any good or not.
People are crazier than any previous generation. i read that a pending
execution concentrates the mind, so if urban raiders become a problem,
maybe folks will wake up.
Frank Gilliland
2008-03-08 07:02:14 UTC
Permalink
On Fri, 7 Mar 2008 20:36:55 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
The economic settings for the Ozarks, the Nation, and the global
market are variable and the data ambiguous.
History isn't ambiguous. And it has this nasty tendancy to repeat
itself.
Post by Day Brown
The clans we think of in the hill country have shrunk dramatically
because the women no longer have lotsa kids. Granted that lotsa
flatlanders move in who are utterly dependent on the government check
and utterly clueless on how to live off the land. but that's pretty
common everywhere but the Amish, and whether they'll be able to defend
themselves with their pacificism is doubtful. There mite be a future
in offering them security services.
Anybody who is physically able to pull a trigger has the psychological
capacity to draw a bead on a threat. But that's probably a genetically
inherited behavior since pacifism isn't much good as a survival plan.
Either way, history has shown time and time again that primitive human
behaviors dominate as soon as civilization dissolves.
Post by Day Brown
Then too, there's the question of whether the 100,000 who live back in
the boonies can defend themselves, even with the advantages of
terrain, from hordes of desperate urban flatlanders. That kinda
depends on whether any economic crisis unfolds over night, or over
time. Then too, the Southern Ozarks have unusual assets. Before fruit
was shipped from Mexico and CA, there usta be a large orchard economy
here, and for some reason, the tractors used were fuel by propane. I
have one, a Farmall M, from about 1955. The engine is shot, but the
propane tank, regulator, and carb are all fine, and could be fitted
out on a wide range of engines.
And the reason that is important is the Fayetteville shale deposit,
which has resulted in gas wells and drilling rigs all over. The
deposit already provides 1% of the total US market. From a region that
if isolated, could run its own economy, and keep its own vehicles
fueled.
Even if you can pump the oil from the shale, you still need the
refining industry to do the extraction, distillation, cracking,
desulfurization and hydrogenation. You also need other industries to
provide the raw materials for both fuel/lubricant processing and
equipment maintenance (whether they are petro engines or windmills).

Face it -- when the economy crumbles you'll be cooking with wood,
reading by candlelight, and getting around on foot or, if you're rich,
a horse and buggy.
Post by Day Brown
I. and lotsa other folks, already have solar panels. Some
already have windpower. Its often cheaper to install than run the
power lines long distances over steep terrain. Like lotsa other folks,
I also have car batteries in the house. Ice storms are common up here,
and that knocks the power out.
There's also the mines up at Lead Hill and Silver hill to provide lead
for batteries and babbit to make bearings. And bullets.
Bullets are easy, but it really helps if you have a bit of antimony to
add to the lead. As for batteries, you really should learn what it
takes to manufacture the plates -- it's not a simple matter of cutting
a piece from a sheet of lead.

BTW, you can make a pretty good rod/main bearing from a piece of cured
pig skin or horse hide. That's a neat trick to know if you are ever
hear that rod knocking and don't have any new bearings available. But
ball and needle bearings are a different story, as Germany found out
the hard way during WWII.
Post by Day Brown
Like others
with orchards and gardens, I've got 50 lb of the flowers of sulphur.
With the other available minerals, that's enuf for hundreds of pounds
of explosive.
Or a couple hundred pounds of sulfuric acid, enough to desulfurize
only a few hundred gallons of motor fuel. After that the sulfur in the
fuel will ruin your engines in a hurry.
Post by Day Brown
The imponderable is whether the people here can get more organized.
History shows however, that regions that have lotsa small farms are
the best at organizing "well regulated militias". Its what the US beat
the Brits with. Its also what the Fins used to stop the Soviet army.
Did I forget to mention the problem of internal feuding?
Post by Day Brown
While the farms here are now pretty much in grass fed beef, there's
still lotsa older other farming equipment to diversify into whatever
the local market wants. I already put in "Arkansas Black" apple trees
cause they are such good keepers.
But there's no way to tell whether all this will do any good or not.
People are crazier than any previous generation. i read that a pending
execution concentrates the mind, so if urban raiders become a problem,
maybe folks will wake up.
I know exactly what happens when a civilization collapses. I've seen
it first-hand and, believe me, it ain't pretty. If you (or your group)
have something of value, you will be constantly defending it against
armed thugs who intend to take it. Your numbers will grow smaller and
smaller until you can no longer defend yourselves. Even if you were
able to hold out for years (which is highly unlikely), you'll never
reproduce fast enough to keep up with the losses from the attacks, not
to mention diseases, malnutrition, accidents, and whatever else Murphy
throws in your direction. And it doesn't matter where the raiders come
from, the only thing you need to be concerned about is where they are
going -- through you and your people. By the time they find you they
will already have plenty of experience in their abilities, so this
misconception by a few in this group that they will be drugged-out
zombies is horse-hooey. They will be tough, merciless and relentless.


Windmills and witchcraft aren't the answer.
Terryc
2008-03-08 07:58:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by Frank Gilliland
If you (or your group)
have something of value, you will be constantly defending it against
armed thugs who intend to take it. Your numbers will grow smaller and
smaller until you can no longer defend yourselves. Even if you were
able to hold out for years (which is highly unlikely), you'll never
reproduce fast enough to keep up with the losses from the attacks, not
to mention diseases, malnutrition, accidents, and whatever else Murphy
throws in your direction. And it doesn't matter where the raiders come
from, the only thing you need to be concerned about is where they are
going --
So what the fizt are the armed raider surviving on?
What magical food and energy source are they able to tap?
Day Brown
2008-03-08 15:54:39 UTC
Permalink
Post by Terryc
So what the fizt are the armed raider surviving on?
What magical food and energy source are they able to tap?
I keep saying, YMMV. Sure things are as mythic as free lunches.
Somethings have changed, some havent. The Arkansas School report,
http://normessasweb.uark.edu/reportcards/select.php
shows me that the small farm community schools still work. Where
agribusiness owns the land, its a fucking mess.

Yes, bandit gangs have always emerged after a collapse, and went on to
rape, pillage, and burn in that order. But let's take that first. Now,
what with HIV and the fact that women can use handguns, they are both
more able, and more determined to defend themselves. when dudes see a
woman, they hesitate to shoot what they might wanna fuck later. The
women wont hesitate. And whereas farm country has always been defended
by men, this time women will be right there with them shooting.

The Ozarks are fulla horses. Lotsa flatlanders came up here and used
their retirement money to go into horse breeding. Its become a glut on
the market. You can get a new colt for 150$, a yearling for 250, and a
decent fully grown riding horse for 500$. Women can, and do, you see
them by the roadsides, ride horses; and after the crash, they'll be
doing that.

Because of the steep terrain, cellphone towers have not provided good
coverage. Lotsa folks still have old CB radios in the truck, or maybe
in the shed. There are also some ham operators. Either way, when
bandit gangs show up, word will spread, and ambushes will be setup for
them. Inasmuch as this can be done by people riding horses, there wont
be any motor noise to reveal where anyone is. Then too, what noises
there are, echo off canyon walls, so unless you are familiar with a
given valley, you dunno where its coming from.

We see the thread on "primary residence", but I am part of a network
of several places, from some near the interstate and economic market
at Russelleville, but others progressively further back and more
inconvenient, but also more inaccessable. We dont claim to know how
bad it will be, but like the ancient hill fort, with nested defenses
further in.

"The Celts" mentions that hill forts begin 3500 years ago; lived in
for a time, then abandoned. Then several hundred years later, they
show up again, lived in for a century or so, then again abandoned.
What's going on? The warlords dont practice good hygiene. Bandit gangs
where we see them today dont either. The Roman legions did, their
surgical apparatus and healthcare skills were remarkable, and that
enabled them to work in the field indefinately.

Look at the postings; the gun nuts *never* discuss contagious disease.
Look at the historical record and you see it stopped the undefeated
Mongols. Listen to the small farm wives, and they do; medical
facilities are a long drive to town, and they all know a grandmother
or whoever who knew how to deal with whatever came up. Including
bullet holes. Yes, there usta be blood feuds, but even back then it
was only a few clans, mostly the moonshiners, while everyone else
minded their own business.

YMMV, but I doubt that supplies for a few months will work. If you
want long term survival, you need to be in a community with a plan to
do that, and the local resources to pull it off. If you come out of
the bunker later without the skills to farm, you'll prolly get shot
trying to make a living hunting. Fishing with a hook is for sportsmen.
If you wanna make a living at it, have a cast net. There mite still be
time to make one: http://www.bertaut.com/castnet.html or buy it.

In any case, bandit gangs prolly dont know anything but what they
learned from 3D video games. Those games didnt teach them any social
skills. They wont pick up any from these postings either. But women
instinctively have that down, and will be far more able and motivated
to form well regulated militias to protect their children. One of the
reasons the Vikings were so successful, was that they didnt practice
monogamy, but lived in a Longhouse sharing the women. When they went a
viking, they *armed* the women to protect their kids and property of
the warriors. There are a lot of descendants of those women who
instinctively know how to defend their own interests still today.

They will be reliable allies, and very dangerous enemies.
Frank Gilliland
2008-03-08 18:21:23 UTC
Permalink
On Sat, 8 Mar 2008 07:54:39 -0800 (PST), Day Brown
Post by Day Brown
Post by Terryc
So what the fizt are the armed raider surviving on?
What magical food and energy source are they able to tap?
I keep saying, YMMV. Sure things are as mythic as free lunches.
Somethings have changed, some havent. The Arkansas School report,
http://normessasweb.uark.edu/reportcards/select.php
shows me that the small farm community schools still work. Where
agribusiness owns the land, its a fucking mess.
Yes, bandit gangs have always emerged after a collapse, and went on to
rape, pillage, and burn in that order. But let's take that first. Now,
what with HIV and the fact that women can use handguns, they are both
more able, and more determined to defend themselves. when dudes see a
woman, they hesitate to shoot what they might wanna fuck later. The
women wont hesitate. And whereas farm country has always been defended
by men, this time women will be right there with them shooting.
<snip>


I think I'll bail out here -- in that last post you made far more
assumptions than I have the time or inclination to address. You can
create all the excuses you want for the plans you have made, but the
simple fact remains: TEOTWAWKI will suck. It will be violent, bloody,
miserable, and a whole lot of people will die, many of them thinking
right now that they have enough skills and/or guns to survive.

I started this thread -not- to argue the graphic details of such a
situation, but to provide what I believe is the best alternative, a
way that may prevent the worst case scenario. Hey, if you don't agree,
fine. If you -want- civilization to collapse then you are sick, and if
you think you will be able to turn a profit in the aftermath then you
are delusional. Disagree all you want, you probably won't be convinced
until you actually see it happening. When it does then you have two
choices: 1. Pack up the truck with just you and your family, run high
into the mountains (the Rockies, not the Ozarks) and hide; or 2. Join
the biggest, baddest gang in the area. If you don't have the capacity
to run then I suggest you join that gang soon, -before- TSHTF.

Or you could help push the government to put everything it has into
developing fusion power, while buying more time with solar, hydro and
wind power. Think of it as a race -- you can't win it if you drop out!
Day Brown
2008-03-08 22:53:59 UTC
Permalink
Polite discourse appreciated Frank. I know my postings offend
sensibilities.
A couple points. the Fayetteville Shale deposit is natural gas, not
oil. At the current rate of extraction, ie, a well on every 20 acres,
it'd take 100 years to get it all out. Small operator wildcats love
this opportunity to compete. You can go into business for less than a
million cause you only havta drill 1500 foot.

When the gas is compressed for the pipelines, which are being buried
all over, some oil dissolved in the gas condenses out. Which anyone
who's used a propane bottle for a couple years will notice... the
accumulation of liquid about the viscosity of diesel. I spoze if you
compressed it enuf you'd get some of the higher fractions like
gasoline, but nobody bothers. You can run a gasoline engine on propane
just fine. It'll only have 80% of the power, but then it burns so
clean it lasts 2-3 times longer. And dont blow the rod bearings.

IF TSHTF, some of these well heads will be taken over just like we
remember in Madd Maxx. But if you read LeBlanc, "Constant Battles" you
get the idea that the initial period of anarchy wont last. Now, he was
thinking in terms of the tropical tribes anthropology reports on,
which has warfare going on all year. But in the temperate zone you
dont havta read much history to see that warfare pretty much shut down
during winter until the modern era. Everyone remembers what happened
to Napoleon in Russia. So- how long before a local warlord or republic
gets organized depends a lot on what time of year global panic breaks
out, and how rapid the collapse is.

LeBlanc makes the point, seen often in history, that the degree of
collapse varies widely; the great power centers have vast mobs run
loose and break down to total anarchy within a few days. Obscure rural
areas may have months to figure out what to do. Especially if winter
weather interferes with the traditional "bug out rig" scenarios. Your
rig got a snowplow?

Because of the focus on energy which you mention, nukes, hydro-
electric dams, coal mines, oil & gas fields will all have forces
gather in the struggle to control. But if your bugout rig has a wood
gas converter in the truck bed, and maybe a trailer to haul firewood,
and an adaptor on your alternator to produce high voltage AC, then you
can run an extension cord to an electric chainsaw, and in forested
regions "gas up" any time you pull over to where the trees are.

You mite also think about a woodgas conversion for the engine on an
arc welder so you can make more woodgas units. Anyone who comes across
your rig, who has not already killed you, will want your ass around to
run it. A CB radio in your rig would also be smart. If the interstate
is clogged, one of the first signs of collapse, the truckers will be
talking about where the bottle necks are.

I'd be very surprised if there were not also "check points" on the
Mississippi bridges. The people on the Great Plains wont want the
lardbutt Easterners getting in the way. Anyone in California will
prolly havta stay there. It wouldnt take much for those in Idaho,
Montana, Wyoming to cut off access on mountain roads either. What
Canada would do depends even more on what the season is.

The Global Capitalist system is chaotic, which is why we worry about
collapse. But that chaos also provides adaptability, so the leadership
may get a handle on it to keep it together, at least for the more
developed economies. Collapse is not inevitable. As Frank notes, there
is research going on in alternative technologies, and while I doubt
that Fusion will be developed in time to stabilize things, the
developed economies do have a lotta resources and might figure out how
to get along with less oil.
Terryc
2008-03-09 00:08:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by Frank Gilliland
Or you could help push the government to put everything it has into
developing fusion power, while buying more time with solar, hydro and
wind power.
The problem with your scenario is that you believe that there is such a
thing as infinite growth. All usable fusion power is going to achieve is
to increase the size of the inevitable crash.
Post by Frank Gilliland
Think of it as a race -- you can't win it if you drop out!
Lol, favourite saying of the scamster.
Terryc
2008-03-09 00:06:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by Day Brown
We see the thread on "primary residence", but I am part of a network
of several places,
That is sort of what I've said in the past. A public/first seen place
where you dump the junkthat might be useful in future, the scrounge
depot, then you have more valuable stuff further back in less accessible
and even caches.
Post by Day Brown
We dont claim to know how bad it will be, but like
the ancient hill fort, with nested defenses further in.
guerilla tactics,which work against stronger invaders do not use
identifieable "forts". Mmore like a series of winnable ambushes.
Post by Day Brown
Look at the historical record and you see it stopped the undefeated
Mongols.
What exactly was that disease?
The earliest things I read said they suffered from stretched
communications and the head office lost effective control of the far
flung conquests. Might also have been that the acculmulated resistance
was just too strong.
Post by Day Brown
Listen to the small farm wives, and they do; medical
facilities are a long drive to town, and they all know a grandmother
or whoever who knew how to deal with whatever came up.
Wow, it must really be backwoods in your part of the world. No such luck
anywhere in Australia, except the remotest regions,but a lot of that is
owned by corporate Agriculture. somehow, I suspect your view has slipped
into the grave whilst you have been growing up. I know all the members
of my family that might have had those skills are just about all gone.
Post by Day Brown
YMMV, but I doubt that supplies for a few months will work. If you
want long term survival, you need to be in a community with a plan to
do that, and the local resources to pull it off.
Yep, we agree on that.
Post by Day Brown
But women instinctively have that down,
Pure bullshit.
Post by Day Brown
There are a lot of descendants of those women who
instinctively know how to defend their own interests still today.
Lol, I know an aussie family with vikings on both sides who wouldn't
have a clue.
Day Brown
2008-03-09 06:45:34 UTC
Permalink
Post by Terryc
Post by Day Brown
Look at the historical record and you see it stopped the undefeated
Mongols.
What exactly was that disease?
The earliest things I read said they suffered from stretched
communications and the head office lost effective control of the far
flung conquests. Might also have been that the acculmulated resistance
was just too strong.
The Black Death. As a parting shot, they used catapults to throw
bodies into the city, a port in Crimea from which it was carried by
ship rats to the rest of Europe.
Post by Terryc
Post by Day Brown
Listen to the small farm wives, and they do; medical
facilities are a long drive to town, and they all know a grandmother
or whoever who knew how to deal with whatever came up.
Wow, it must really be backwoods in your part of the world. No such luck
anywhere in Australia, except the remotest regions,but a lot of that is
owned by corporate Agriculture. somehow, I suspect your view has slipped
into the grave whilst you have been growing up. I know all the members
of my family that might have had those skills are just about all gone.
The Ozarks were notorious for being backward. Lotsa hippies moved from
the city to here back in the late 1960s. I remember speaking with old
folks who remembered farming with mules. During WWII, lotsa young
folks moved out to defense plants, leaving only those who really liked
living in the woods and had the skills to get by on it.

The hippies really appreciated their knowledge, the herbs, and what we
now call "organic" farming methods, and got here soon enuf for that
folklore to be passed on.
Post by Terryc
Post by Day Brown
YMMV, but I doubt that supplies for a few months will work. If you
want long term survival, you need to be in a community with a plan to
do that, and the local resources to pull it off.
Yep, we agree on that.
Post by Day Brown
But women instinctively have that down,
Pure bullshit.
Post by Day Brown
There are a lot of descendants of those women who
instinctively know how to defend their own interests still today.
Lol, I know an aussie family with vikings on both sides who wouldn't
have a clue.
I cant speak for the women I dont know. Last year, I filled my freezer
with venison one witch shot for intruding on her garden. Had it been a
biped, he'd have been dead meat as well. She dressed out the deer in
her bathtub. To these ladies, a "convenience food" is something that
is already dead. There's a slaughter house a few miles from me. The
whole place is run by women. You know that a half hour after you hack
the head off an ox the arteries are still pulsating trying to pump
blood to a brain that aint there? Once you get usta dealing with guts,
it dont matter how many legs carry it around.

Maybe the diff is the Cherokee blood. Lots of them got loose on the
way to being deported to Oklahoma, and took up with the Scots/Irish
that were also hiding out here. Its said that an Arkansan hillbilly is
a man with a horse faster than a sheriff in Missouri. Then during the
civil war, these counties *seceded* from the Confederate government in
Little Rock. Most of these counties have banned liquor stores, pubs,
or other such so as to keep the moonshiners in business. Then, in more
recent years, its been cannibis production. The area has a long
history of social deviants.

If the rest of the nation thinks they are all a buncha stupid inbred
hillbillies, they dont have a problem with it. They have made a lotta
money out of looking really gullible. I know of where they've poured
crankcase oil on a steep curve, then when the truck crashed, came by
to give the driver a ride to town... while the rest of the clan
cleaned out the truck.

Another thing in their favor is that you have to live here to know how
to get around. The maps are *WRONG*. The roads run down into creek
valleys, which from time to time get hit by flash floods. When the
road crews get down there to fix it, they move the road to wherever
the new creek channel let them put it. Most of the time, the gravel
roads dont have bridges, but they route the road work to a point where
the creek is shallow enuf to drive across. Which sometimes gets washed
out and deep. But you dunno that if you dont live here.

Other times, there is a bridge, but if the water's high, its under
water. But if you know whether it is too much higher or not, you can
drive over, cause you know where it is, and leave flatlanders on the
far side wondering how the hell you got your truck across. Nowadays,
Jesus dont walk on water, he drives on it.

There are many other places in the American West with steep land and
highly variable water levels that have similar effects full of
surprises to those who dont know their way around. After TSTF, the
snow plows wont be running either. Sometimes you can get there from
here, sometimes not. A bugout rig will be vastly more useful if you
actually know where you are going and how to get there under all
weather conditions. Unless you've lived in a region, you prolly dont
know these kinds of details.
Terryc
2008-03-06 22:18:13 UTC
Permalink
Post by Day Brown
Neither Nukes or Fusion is going anywhere until the problem of
terrorism has been dealt with.
Lol, and they will fix that right after they fix "violence".
Retief
2008-03-06 04:25:11 UTC
Permalink
On Wed, 05 Mar 2008 04:12:56 -0800, Frank Gilliland
Post by Frank Gilliland
Post by Retief
Choosing D-T fusion is a _backtrack_, since the desirable solution is
D-D fusion. The D-T fusion reaction results in a spare neutron (I
explained this to you previously), which is then available to activate
the walls of the confinement chamber -- thus you have residual
radioactive contamination.........
<snip>
All these issues have been addressed on the sites I referenced.
No they haven't, Francis. And, as usual, you are doing "cargo cult
science". You really shouldn't try to bullshit your way through
technology discussions (let the reader not forget your recent BS claim
that high tension power lines produce x-rays, and thus kill people).

Laughable...

Retief
Gunner
2008-03-06 10:36:12 UTC
Permalink
Post by Retief
Post by Frank Gilliland
All these issues have been addressed on the sites I referenced.
No they haven't, Francis. And, as usual, you are doing "cargo cult
science". You really shouldn't try to bullshit your way through
technology discussions (let the reader not forget your recent BS claim
that high tension power lines produce x-rays, and thus kill people).
Laughable...
Retief
Xrays? Power lines?

ROFLMAO!!!

Gunner
Terryc
2008-02-29 03:24:38 UTC
Permalink
Post by Frank Gilliland
"Yet, there is no other known energy source, individual or collective,
that will be able to replace / supplant the energy now supplied to us
by conventional oil."
lol, how silly. There are none so stupid as those that refuse to open
their eyes. the same was probably said about horses.

There a plenty of alternative liquid fuels and plenty of other alternatives.
Day Brown
2008-02-28 22:57:55 UTC
Permalink
Post by t***@taxrefusal.com
Post by Day Brown
So- has anyone written a more thot out response to societal collapse?
Not that it is much different apprach, but you might want to read the
http://www.taxrefusal.com/index-TEOTWAWKI.html
Yeah, thanx. His numbers are compelling. His options are varied and
reasonable, but outside of the option of staying where you are and
stocking up, not very specific.

I dunno how specific I can be either, but I can see my neck of Ozark
woods meets the survival criteria he listed. But the problem is not
the local resource base, but the mental function, or dysfunction of
those who are already here, or will try to get here. Let me, like him,
start with Pres Carter, and the American Malaise. The data is in to
delinieate it more precisely.

By the time of Carter, we have the first generation of voters raised
on sugar cereals, junkfood, and soda. Thinking is not something they
do very well, which is why they voted for Reagan. And why all the
warnings he cites at his website from Hubble and others, have gone
unheeded. He is correct that community action is best, surely way
ahead of a bunker in the boonies. But- not if the community itself is
made up of nut cases.

People do seem to be more rational here, but is that rational enuf? If
you surf the school reports of these small hill towns, like Alread,
Bee Branch, Clinton, Deer, Eureka Springs, Flippin, Greer's Ferry,
Heber Springs, and so on thru the alphabet, you find that these
schools still work. Lotsa these kids are growing up on family farms,
and when they get home from school, they dont have a remote in the
hand, but a pitchfork. There is something about physical activity that
enhances mental development. The autism rate in the city is 1:155; out
here, its one in 4000, and among the Amish kids, who never see
junkfood, soda, or sugar cereals at all, its 1:15,000.

There are similar numbers for ADD, ADHD, ICD, and the other mental
dysfunctions that have led to the rise of Christian fundamentalism
(which only requires faith, not reason) and the Neocon mess we have
now. They are right to rant about the loss of morals, but you cant
expect moral behavior from irrational people.

The good/bad news is that this American Maliase has spread globally by
transnational agribusiness and fast food. There are many economies
that are coming apart already that wont be using much of the remaining
global oil production. Which has therefore been redirected to the
great power centers to keep them going. For a while.

The Christians say that happiness in the next world depends on what
you believe. as may be. But- happiness in this world depends on what
you do, and that will require more than sitting in front of a PC
ranting about how bad it is, and will be. Which is why I work in the
garden every day the weather permits. Stocking up is only a short term
solution. You will need to be able to produce your own food, and be
able to organize a well regulated militia so you can eat it.

But just because some now have become aware of the problem and are
therefore moving to the Ozark boonies, does not mean that they are
also rational enuf to deal with the challenges of living sustainably
off the local resource base.
Too_Many_Tools
2008-03-10 00:19:23 UTC
Permalink
Post by Day Brown
I see Kunstler came out with another apocalyptic book. seems like one
comes out every month now. Its easy to make the case that TSHTF, but
what to do about that seems to be limited to ammo, guns, food, and
gas.
But whether all that will do you any good depends on where you are to
start with, where you go, and who will be there ahead of you. There's
a lotta infantry vets in the Ozarks who know how to setup an ambush.
It wont be like a movie or video game; you dont get to drive and shoot
at the same time, and those shooting back are not as stupid.
I aint so sure stocking a bunker is such a good idea either. those
I've seen posting seem like they'd go postal after a few weeks.
So- has anyone written a more thot out response to societal collapse?
Those good old boys in the Ozarks will be eating each other for lunch
in a couple months after SHTF.

Going postal will be known as the Ozark shuffle.

TMT
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